In a standalone matinee, the Seattle Mariners take on the Texas Rangers this afternoon at 2:35 PM ET / 1:35 PM CT / 11:35 AM PT from Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Being the only game on until the slate of 6:40 ET games begin, plenty of eyes will be on the matchup between the Mariners' George Kirby and the Rangers' Kumar Rocker.
Seattle is a -135 favorite with the over/under set at 8.0 on bet365. Let's try to find some guys that are in good spots to potentially go deep in this mid-afternoon game.
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Rocker is certainly the pitcher to target in this one. He's allowed 12 homers this season - nine to lefties - in 96 innings pitched (1.12 per nine innings). He primarily throws a slider against left-handed hitters, and it's been an effective pitch, but his trio of fastballs (four-seam, cutter, and sinker) have been susceptible to giving up the long ball this season.
Righties have only gone deep three times against him this year, but the Mariners have plenty of left-handed power hitters to take advantage of Rocker's struggles against lefties.
1. Luke Raley (+550)
Designated hitter Luke Raley has been one of the most powerful left-handed bat this year for the M's, smashing 15 homers all against right-handed pitchers so far.
While he's only gone yard once in his last 20 games, the hard contact and fly ball rates have each still been strong recently. In the last 15 balls he's put in play vs. pitchers with a similar mix to Rocker's, Raley has a 53.3% hard-hit rate, 33.3% fly ball rate, and a 40% pull rate - all good numbers for a guy due to hit a home run.
The concern with Raley, however, is his pinch-hit potential. Most likely, if Texas puts in a lefty from the pen to face Raley, the slugger will be subbed out for a right-handed bat. His price of +550 is enticing considering his power against righties, but beware of him only getting two-to-three at-bats.
2. Dominic Canzone (+390)
Another power-bat from the left-handed side, Canzone has hit 14 of his 16 home runs this year against righties. He has elite bat speed and can hit it as hard as anyone in the game.
Rocker's four-seam fastball frequency has increased over his last five starts, and that's the exact pitch we would like to see be thrown to Canzone in the zone. He has a 20% barrel rate against that pitch in his last 15 BBE (batted ball events) with a 46.7% fly ball rate.
Canzone went deep yesterday against a righty and he may very well do it again today.
3. Joc Pederson (+425)
The only pick from the Rangers' side against Kirby, Joc Pederson has been playing out of his mind in his last 20 games. He has seven home runs in those games, and almost every ball is coming off the bat at over 95 MPH.
Kirby is primarily throws a four-seam/sweeper combo with other pitches mixed in, but hopefully he gives Pederson a fastball in a spot that he likes it. Joc has a 20% barrel rate against the four-seamer in his last 15 BBE against that pitch, including a 40% fly ball rate and 33.3% pull rate.
Being the leadoff man, he'll get at least a couple at-bats against Kirby, making him a pretty good look at +425.
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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
These are not official picks, this article is simply a discussion and an opinion piece.
