The Chicago Cubs carry their nine game winning streak to Arlington to take on the Texas Rangers in a interleague matchup.
Chicago (26-12) is fresh off back-to-back sweeps against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds and are playing at a high level in all facets of the game, despite some injuries to their pitching staff.
Their superbly balanced lineup consists of four guys with six-plus home runs already, and every one of their hitters in their typical lineup has an above average OPS+.
The Rangers, on the other hand, are 17-20 and 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Regardless, there is still plenty of pop in a lineup that features Corey Seager, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson, and more sluggers.
It'll be Ben Brown toeing the rubber as the starting pitcher for the Cubs, while Kumar Rocker will take the mound for Texas.
Below, we'll try to find some hitters in advantageous spots to go deep tonight, backed by stats and trends, and using odds from bet365.
Also, be sure to read our partner authors' expert betting picks and predictions article for Cubs vs. Rangers tonight on site.
Who Could Hit a Home Run in the Cubs vs. Rangers Game? – May 8
Texas Rangers Hitters
Brown is a difficult pitcher to target as he hasn't allowed much hard contact this year and only given up one homers in 25.1 innings pitched so far.
He was susceptible to the long ball last year, however, giving up 18 in 106.1 innings - 13 of them to lefties. With this being his first start of the season, his numbers could trend towards what they were last year.
Brown has heavy fastball usage against lefties, throwing it more than 57% of the time. These are a couple lefties that have been hitting the fastball well on the Rangers:
Corey Seager (+375)
Seager has the shortest odds to go deep in the game tonight, and it's for a good reason.
The lefty has been smoking fastballs recently, carrying a 26.7% barrel rate against right-handed fastballs in the last 15 instances that he's put one in play. In the last 10 instances, he has a 50% fly ball rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and a 40% pull rate - all ideal numbers for predicting a homer.
Seager has three homers off of right-handed fastballs already this year, and he could add a fourth tonight.
Evan Carter (+850)
Carter is a longshot with his odds at +850, but there's some value here.
Carter, a lefty, is starting to see the ball well after struggling mightily to begin the season. He homered two days ago and has been putting the ball in the air consistently.
In the last 10 right-handed fastballs he's put in play, he's hit six fly balls with a 50% hard-hit rate. Similarly to Seager, he also has three homers off of righty fastballs this year.
His launch angle has been ideal, but he's only pulling the ball at a 30% rate in the same sample size, explaining the steep price. Still, with his odds that long, plus his ability to hit the ball hard in the air makes him a worthy candidate.
Chicago Cubs Hitters
Rocker has done a pretty nice job of keeping the ball on the ground this year, allowing just 17.4% of batted balls to be fly balls, however guys have hit the ball hard off him throughout the course of the season.
His 18.8% HR/fly ball number is great for hitters. Basically, one out of every five fly balls turns into a home run against Rocker. Let's find some guys that are hitting the ball in the air consistently.
Michael Conforto (+525)
Conforto is on absolute fire and he can continue his hot play against Rocker. He's homered twice in four days, including one last night, and is the guy we're looking for to put the ball in the air.
Rocker primarly throws a slider, sinker, changeup, and fastball to left-handed hitters, and Conforto has been crushing the slider and sinker recently.
He has a 30% barrel rate in the last 10 sinkers or sliders he's put in a play, including a 40% fly ball rate (60% in his last five), 60% hard-hit rate, and a 30% pull rate.
We're just looking for someone that can put the ball in the air against Rocker, and Conforto certainly can do that.
Another candidate to go deep tonight off Rocker is Seiya Suzuki (40% fly ball rate in his last 10 balls put in play against Rocker's pitch mix), but his hard hit rate of 30% in the same sample isn't quite high enough to have him added to the list.
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Odds within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
