A place in the 2026 US Open final is on the line when Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium on Thursday night.
Sabalenka's 'three-peat' bid survived a scare on Tuesday when the top seed was taken to a deciding set by Linda Noskova in her quarterfinal.
But the Belarusian, who boasts a remarkable 32-3 record on hard courts this year, battled back from a break down to book a place in her sixth consecutive US Open semifinal.
The 7-6 3-6 7-6 victory extended Sabalenka's winning streak at Flushing Meadows to 18 matches, leaving her two wins shy of becoming the first woman to win three consecutive titles in New York since Serena Williams.
Her rivalry with Pegula, who lost in the 2024 final at Flushing Meadows and from one set up against Sabalenka at the semifinal stage last year, should ensure this matchup carries even more meaning.
The third seed started slowly in both her third-round match against Leylah Fernandez and Tuesday's 3-6 6-4 6-3 win over fellow American Emma Navarro.
However, she found a way to win those matches without producing anything like her best tennis and the 32-year-old will have gained confidence from two wins over the world number one, in Wuhan and Berlin, since last year's heartbreaking semi.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Picks & Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 match handicap (-138)
It's hard to see Pegula staying consistent enough to win this match given her current form.
The American has had to rely on her fighting qualities to get through to the last four because she seems to have left her A-game at home.
She won just 41% of her second-serve points against Navarro and that will be a concern given how much harder and flatter the returns will be coming back from Sabalenka if she cannot get her first serve in.
The Belarusian played well when she lost to Pegula on grass in the summer, albeit the American performed better on the big points.
But it looks like Sabalenka has peaked in New York again and, despite coming under severe pressure from Noskova on Tuesday, she dug deep and came through in the end.
The 28-year-old has won nine of their 13 previous meetings, including five of eight on hard courts and all three at Grand Slam events, and she has covered a -2.5-game handicap in all nine of her victories over Pegula.
Aryna Sabalenka over 6.5 aces (-120)
Sabalenka's serve has been the backbone of her 18‑match winning streak at Flushing Meadows.
She fired 12 aces in her quarterfinal win over Noskova and has hit double‑digit aces in three of her last five matches. Even when her ground game wobbles, her first and second serves remain elite weapons.
Pegula struggled badly against Navarro's serve, winning just 38% of first‑serve return points in the quarterfinal.
Navarro produced eight aces in the three sets and her serve is not quite as threatening or consistent as Sabalenka's.
If the reigning champion maintains her aggression and continues to chase free points, clearing this ace line looks highly achievable.
Total sets - 3 (+120)
Sabalenka deservedly starts as the favorite because of her superior head-to-head record, world ranking and Grand Slam pedigree.
However, she may not have it all her own way against Pegula, who has won two of their last three meetings. Both of those victories came in three sets, including a 6‑0 deciding set in Berlin earlier this year.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, needed a third‑set tiebreak to oust Noskova and has played her most dramatic tennis of the season in New York.
Pegula's tactical discipline and ability to absorb pace often force Sabalenka into extended rallies and emotional swings
Sabalenka's power, in turn, can overwhelm Pegula for stretches. The contrast in styles - Pegula's measured patterns vs. Sabalenka's explosive first‑strike tennis - naturally lends itself to momentum shifts.
Given Pegula's improved confidence and Sabalenka's occasional mid‑match volatility, a three‑set battle feels like the right call.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula head to head
Aryna Sabalenka wins | 9 |
Jessica Pegula wins | 4 |
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula odds
Aryna Sabalenka | -188 |
Jessica Pegula | +250 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
