Uncharted territory awaits for rising Japanese star Rei Sakamoto, who has made it through to the second round of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career, and now he faces a tough challenge against American Frances Tiafoe in the round of 64 at the US Open.
The advantage in terms of experience heavily favors Tiafoe, who was a US Open semi-finalist in 2022 and 2024.
But Tiafoe has never reached a Grand Slam final and his best effort at a major this year was a run to the fourth round in the French Open.
However, Tiafoe is a strong favorite to take a step forward at the expense of 20-year-old Sakamoto, who reached a career-high ranking of 148 earlier this summer.
Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe betting picks and predictions
Frances Tiafoe to win 3-1 (+225)
Tiafoe has made it past the second round on his last six visits to Flushing Meadows and should have too much quality and nous for Sakamoto, although he may have to work hard for victory.
There is the potential for a bright future for Sakamoto, who possesses a heavy, largely accurate serve and showed promise as a junior by winning the Australian Open boys title in 2024.
Having battled through US Open qualifying, Sakamoto broke new ground with his first round victory (6-4 6-7 6-4 3-6 6-4) over Australian Aleksandar Vukic.
Sakamoto’s success was not entirely unexpected, given that his opponent had fallen at the first hurdle in each of his previous three US Open appearances.
Facing Tiafoe is a big step up in class and it will be fascinating to see how the Japanese player handles the occasion.
All of the pressure and expectation will be on Tiafoe, who may take a while to get to grips with his opponent’s unorthodox style, which includes an unusually short swing on the forehand side.
And Tiafoe’s own game has plenty of room for improvement after he was taken to five sets (6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4) in a power-packed first round tussle against fellow American, Martin Damm.
Tiafoe dug himself into a hole on that occasion before raising his game when he really needed to.
He has a strong mentality at critical moments and that could play a role in ensuring a hard-fought victory over Sakamoto, who could be dispatched in four sets.
First set over 10.5 games (+175)
Tiafoe’s levels of fitness were questioned after he underwent minor surgery to remove a cyst from his right hand following retirement during a third round match against Arthur Rinderknech at the Montreal Masters.
He responded strongly, though, with a run to the final at the Cincinnati Masters and seems to be getting his game to a level which could enable a deep run at Flushing Meadows.
Tiafoe certainly needs to improve on his first round showing against Damm and he may take a while to get to grips with Sakamoto, who approaches the contest with little to lose and everything to gain.
Sakamoto stands at six feet, four inches tall and his serve is well suited to playing on fast courts.
He faced only two break points in his first round triumph over Vukic and his strength on serve could contribute to a tightly contested first set featuring at least 12 games.
Rei Sakamoto to win over 18.5 games (-110)
As the match progresses, Tiafoe should start to get more of a handle on Sakamoto’s serve.
The American has an excellent return and his athleticism and movement are huge assets once he gets himself into longer rallies.
However, Sakamoto showed staying power in his five-set victory over Vukic and is unlikely to go down without leaving everything out on the court.
The Japanese player can create a good impression in the biggest match of his career and looks a solid wager to win 19 games or more.
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Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe odds
Rei Sakamoto | +300 |
Frances Tiafoe | -400 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
