Coco Gauff is building up plenty of positive momentum as she bids to win the US Open for the second time but her opponent in the second round, Paula Badosa, has caused her plenty of problems in the past.
It was a relatively underwhelming start to 2026 for Gauff by her own high standards, but runs to the semifinals of both Wimbledon and the Canadian Open were followed by a first title of the year in Cincinnati in the build up to her home Grand Slam.
Gauff, who claimed her first Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2023, then made light work of first-round opponent Zeynep Sonmez in New York and she will be back on Arthur Ashe Stadium for her clash with former world number two Badosa.
Badosa was a quarterfinalist on her last appearance at Flushing Meadows in 2024, but missed last year's tournament through injury, while fitness concerns have continued to disrupt her progress this year.
However, the Spaniard was fit and firing in her first-round victory over Daria Kasatkina and she knows what it takes to get the better of Gauff.
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff betting picks and predictions
Coco Gauff to win 2-1 (+275)
This is a tricky second-round match for Gauff, as she would normally expect to face a player of Badosa's quality and pedigree much later in the tournament, but the Spaniard's recent fitness issues mean she has fallen down the world rankings.
Badosa boasts the better record in head-to-head meetings between the pair, winning five of their eight clashes, including their most recent showdown on grass in Berlin in June when she came from a set down to triumph 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.
The 28-year-old also got the better of Gauff at the Australian Open in 2025, coming through their quarterfinal clash in straight sets before falling to Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals.
That record should have Gauff worried, but the Florida native is in form and while she was claiming a fourth WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati in the build up to her home slam, Badosa was recovering from minor surgery.
Badosa showed no ill effects from her procedure in her first-round victory over Kasatkina - her first match in over a month - and has played down fitness concerns, but this will be a stern test of her credentials against a player of Gauff's quality.
Gauff has won 11 of her 12 matches since Wimbledon, the last six of which have all been claimed in straight sets, including her first-round win over Sonmez and her dominant success against world number three Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati final.
This promises to be a much closer affair - three of the last four meetings between this pair have gone to three sets - and Badosa can take a set off her opponent, but it is Gauff that is expected to come through and book her place in the third round.
Paula Badosa to win the first set (+333)
When Badosa beat Gauff in Berlin prior to Wimbledon, she had to come from behind to do so after dropping the first set 6-1 and that has been a familiar theme of recent meetings between the pair.
Badosa was a straight sets winner at the Australian Open in 2025, but their two clashes before that were both won by Gauff after her opponent had taken the first set.
In the semifinals of the China Open in October 2024, Badosa took the first set 6-4 before losing the next two 6-4, 6-2, while at the Italian Open earlier that same year the Spaniard won the opener 7-5 before bowing out in three.
It could be a familiar story on Thursday for Badosa, as she is capable of making a fast start, but particularly given her recent lack of match action, she may end up fading as the contest goes on and Gauff can take advantage.
Over 19.5 games (-120)
If, as expected, this match goes to three sets then the game line of 19.5 will almost certainly be passed, although even if it doesn't go to a deciding set, these two players can still surpass that total.
The last four meetings have all gone well beyond the 20-game mark, including Badosa's straight-sets win at the 2025 Australian Open, as a total of 22 games were needed in that 7-5, 6-4 success.
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff odds
Paula Badosa | +500 |
Coco Gauff | -800 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
