Three of the four men left in the bottom half of the US Open singles draw hail from the US and, of the trio, it is Ben Shelton who the odds rate as most likely to win the title.
Shelton would love to be the one to end a 23-year wait for an American men's champion, but he faces an almighty quarter-final task against the reigning king of New York, Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz came into Flushing Meadows off a four-month layoff, but he has shown few signs of rust, easing through to the last eight for the loss of just one set.
The Spaniard is a -350 favorite to reach the US Open semi-finals for the fourth time in five years, while Shelton is +275 to progress to the semis having previously done so in 2023, when he lost out to Novak Djokovic.
Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions
Carlos Alcaraz to win & both players to win a set (+110)
Alcaraz came into this year's US Open with questions to answer over his form and fitness but the reigning champion has responded to them all in emphatic fashion, dropping just one set in wins over Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, Yibing Wu and Tommy Paul.
Alcaraz, who had been out since April's Barcelona Open with a wrist injury, is seemingly no worse for wear and, worryingly for his rivals, could even have benefited from a mid-season break while others were busy scrapping it out over the summer months.
Facing a fresh Alcaraz is a frightening prospect at this time of year and his Flushing Meadows win-loss record, which now stands at 28-3, illustrates the task that Shelton faces, as does the fact that he has never beaten the Spaniard.
The pair have met three times – twice on hard courts and once on clay – with Alcaraz prevailing on each occasion, but their most recent meeting at last year's French Open will encourage Shelton, who took a set off his opponent on what has historically been the American's weakest surface.
Shelton is far more comfortable on hard courts – he wins 64.6% of his matches on the surface compared with 55.3% on clay – and he has impressed at the US Open with victories over four dangerous opponents in Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Floridian's power, physicality and intensity could enable him to take Alcaraz out of his comfort zone for the first time since his return to action, and that should make for a competitive match.
As was the case in Paris, Shelton should be able to take a set off Alcaraz again, although he has not shown enough to suggest he has what it takes to defeat the reigning champion over the best-of-five format.
Under 5.5 total breaks of serve (+110)
Despite the potential for this match to feature four or more sets, under 5.5 breaks of serve appeals as an alternative bet.
Both men served supremely in their previous match in New York, with Alcaraz broken once by Paul and Shelton not even facing a break point against Tsitsipas.
Their previous hard-court meetings, in Toronto in 2023 and the 2024 Laver Cup, featured just three breaks of serve from four sets contested, and both are arguably better servers now.
Ben Shelton 5+ double faults (+100)
Shelton served brilliantly in the win over Tsitsipas, thundering in 12 aces and making 72% of his first serves, but there is potential for his delivery to break down under considerably more pressure in this match.
The American had seven double faults in his third-round win over Shapovalov and six in his opener against Griekspoor, and he will be forced to take more risks given Alcaraz's elite returning ability.
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Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz head to head
Ben Shelton wins | 0 |
Carlos Alcaraz wins | 3 |
Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds
Ben Shelton | +275 |
Carlos Alcaraz | -350 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
