The USA unexpectedly fell to Italy in their fourth and final game of pool play, and now their hopes to make the quarterfinals and beyond are in limbo.
USA manager Mark DeRosa is under some intense heat after he thought his team had already clinched its spot in the quarterfinal even before the game against Italy.
"It's weird," DeRosa said before the game. "We want to win this game even though our ticket's punched to the quarterfinals."
Further proof that he genuinely thought the US was already in the upcoming single-game elimination round was the decision to start Paul Goldschmidt ahead of Bryce Harper at first base in order to "get some guys off their feet," according to DeRosa.
DeRosa also chose to go with Ryan Yarbrough after Italy put up three runs in three innings on MLB rookie Nolan McLean.
Yarbrough, thought of as the worst pitcher on the team, allowed a two-run home run to Jac Caglianone that extended the lead to 5-0.
The US ended up falling behind 8-0, but rallied to make it 8-6 before running out of innings to complete the comeback.
After the game DeRosa said that he simply "misspoke" in his interview before the game, but that's a little hard to believe with the way the game was managed throughout.
Now the question on everyone's mind is: what needs to happen for the USA to qualify for the single-elimination quarterfinal round?
How can the USA advance to the quarterfinal round?
Two different outcomes can happen for the USA to advance to the quarterfinals:
Italy beats Mexico by any score
Mexico beats Italy, AND Mexico scores five or more runs
With the complicated tie-breaker formula, the only way for the USA to be eliminated is if Mexico beats Italy and scores less than five runs. That would mean something like a 4-3 Mexico victory or a 3-1 Mexico win would eliminate the United States.
Another simple way to think about it is this: if Italy scores four or more runs, the US is in. That would obviously require Mexico to score five.
For context, Mexico is favored by -1.5 runs (-125) and the total is set at 7.5. With the low projected total and the expectation that Mexico wins, there's no doubt that the US is nervous.
Odds on the USA to advance
Still, the United States is -390 to advance to the quarters. Mexico is -260 and Italy is -140. With only two teams from each pool moving on, one of the three listed will be eliminated tonight.
Current WBC Outright Odds - Mar. 11
Dominican Republic | +190 |
USA | +225 |
Japan | +250 |
Venezuela | +900 |
Mexico | +2000 |
Puerto Rico | +2200 |
Italy | +2200 |
Canada | +6500 |
South Korea | +8000 |
Cuba | +10000 |
With the USA having a chance to be eliminated tonight, their odds have dropped to +225. Coming into the tournament, the team stacked with superstars and MVPs was -110.
The dominant Dominicans have jumped the US and are now favored to win it at +190. The talent on the team is eye-popping with players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Oneil Cruz, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all having terrific starts to the tournament.
The Dominican Republic has played Israel, the Netherlands, and Nicaragua and outscored the three teams 34-5 - they're in the tournament regardless of the outcome of their game against Venezuela today.
Japan (+250) sits right behind the US after a 4-0 start to the tournament which included a 8-6 win over South Korea. Shohei Ohtani and Seiya Suzuki have each homered twice in the three games they have played in. Japan has also clinched a spot in the quarterfinals.
Venezuela (+900), Puerto Rico (+2200), and Korea (+8000) are the other three teams that have all already punched their ticket to the quarterfinals.
Canada (+6500) and Cuba (+10000) will battle for a spot into the single-game elimination rounds when they face off against each other at 3 PM ET today. The winner moves on, the loser goes home.
Mexico (+2000) will advance with a win over Italy tonight and are highlighted by the terrific play of Jarren Duran (three homes in his last two games).
If Italy (+2200) simply holds Mexico to four or less runs tonight, they'll be in. Italy has plenty of young MLB talent on the offensive side of the ball that can make some serious noise if they advance.
All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
