Umar Nurmagomedov and Yadong Song look to take a huge step towards the bantamweight title when they face off in China this weekend.
With Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili booked for their trilogy fight for the title and Sean O'Malley hovering, the winner of this #3 vs #6 match-up will firmly insert themselves in the conversation for who is next in line.
The event takes place on Saturday 29 August at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China.
The fights begin at 3AM ET with the Early Preliminary Card, followed by the Preliminary Card at 5AM ET and the Main Card at 7AM ET.
Our article gives you our two best bets for the main event, as well as the current moneyline odds for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song.
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song betting picks and predictions
Fight to go the distance (-220)
Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) is a wide moneyline favorite over Song (23-9-1), but the two are likely more evenly matched than the odds makers give the Chinese fighter credit for.
Nurmagomedov is no doubt a top talent, suffering only one professional defeat as he challenged Dvalishvili for the belt over five rounds in early 2025.
As his surname suggests, the Dagestan fighter brings strong sambo wrestling ability, able to bring a grappling pressure that many find hard to overcome.
However, Nurmagomedov has also shown he is a top-level kickboxer, using his long-range kicking game to aid his level changes.
Song is a stand-up fighter, securing five knockout finishes from 12 UFC wins, however, his last came three years ago in a late TKO of Ricky Simón.
Despite being only 28 years old, Song has been in the UFC since making an impressive debut in Shanghai in 2017 and is a fighter who has had to learn his trade inside the promotion.
Losses to O'Malley and Yan since 2024 have left questions about whether Song can step up to the elite level, however, both of these were three-round fights.
Nurmagomedov also needs to prove himself against the division's best fighters.
After three finishes in his first four UFC fights, Nurmagomedov's five fights since have all gone the distance.
Song submitted Deiveson Figueiredo in round two in his last fight in May to secure his first win inside the distance in six fights.
However, he is unlikely to repeat that feat here and this one is likely to be decided at the end of five hard rounds.
Yadong Song to win (+400)
Incidentally, Nurmagomedov's last opponent was also Figueiredo, who he recorded a controlling three-round decision victory against in January.
In his two fights since losing to Dvalishvili, the 30-year-old looks to have adopted a safety-first approach with a significantly lower strike rate.
Song brings a 73% takedown defence rate here having improved his grappling in recent times and there is no doubt this will have to be on point to get his hand raised here.
Song is 4-1 in five-round contests, Nurmagomedov is 1-1, while he was also successfully headlined at home in China in his last fight in May.
On the feet, Nurmagomedov is no slouch, but can lose his head if things do not go his way, with Song needing to frustrate his opponent and make this more of a high-paced scrap as the contest moves into the latter rounds.
This one could well be close and at the odds it's worth taking a chance on Song to get his hand raised.
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song odds
Umar Nurmagomedov | Yadong Song | |
Moneyline | -550 | +400 |
By Decision or Technical Decision | -160 | +950 |
By KO, TKO or DQ | +625 | +800 |
By Submission | +425 | +2800 |
Total Rounds | Over | Under |
1.5 | -900 | +550 |
2.5 | -450 | +320 |
3.5 | -320 | +235 |
4.5 | -245 | +185 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
