One of the UFC’s youngest prospects Raul Rosas Jr. is handed a tough test in his first main event slot against veteran Raoni Barcelos.
The event will take place on Saturday 26 September at the Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada.
The fights will begin at 5 PM ET with the Early Preliminary Card, followed by the Preliminary Card at 7 PM ET and the Main Card at 9PM ET.
Our article will give you our two best bets for the main event, as well as the current moneyline odds for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos betting picks and predictions
Over 3.5 rounds (-165)
Both Raul Rosas Jr. (12-1-0) and Raoni Barcelos (22-5-0) go into this clash on five-fight winning streaks despite an incredible 18-year age gap.
Rosas Jr., 21, has been in the UFC since he broke through as a 17-year-old on Dana White’s Contender Series, with his 6-1 UFC record now seeing him ranked number 12 in the 135lb division.
A three-round win over Rob Font in March was a significant step forward for the Mexican-American, who also has wins over Vince Morales (UD), Aoriqileng (UD), Ricky Turcios (R2, Sub) and Terrence Mitchell (R1, RKO).
The Problem Child's run came after he recovered from an early setback against Christian Rodriguez in 2023, losing his second fight in the organisation.
Now he takes another move up the ladder as he headlines a card for the first time, taking on wily veteran and number 13-ranked Barcelos over 25 minutes.
Barcelos’s career has seen something of a resurgence and he now finds himself unbeaten in five fights since the start of 2024 with wins over Cristian Quinonez (R3, Sub), Payton Talbott (UD), Cody Garbrandt (UD), Ricky Simon (UD) and Montel Jackson (SD).
Before that the Brazilian had been on a torrid 1-4 run in his previous five fights.
Interestingly, this is Barcelos' first time as a UFC headliner, despite joining the promotion in 2018 and entering his 16th contest inside the octagon.
Rosas JR. is an out and out grappler who looks to bring constant pressure and control his opponents.
His UFC stats currently show 6.10 takedowns per 15 minutes but only 0.87 submission attempts, resulting in two submissions from his six wins.
Barcelos brings both strong striking and grappling credentials, especially defensively, where his takedown defense stands at 87%.
The 39-year-old has used his wrestling to good effect of late both against Talbott and also in his last fight against Montell Jackson, where he scored six takedowns and gained over seven and a half minutes of control time.
The grappling battle will be crucial with Rosas Jr. somewhat reliant on gaining success in this area.
The 21-year-old has an average fight time of 10:45 minutes, while Barcelos stands at 13:09 minutes so expect a technical battle to establish dominance.
Raoni Barcelos to win (+135)
Barcelos does have form in derailing a UFC hype train as his 2025 win over Payton Talbott showed.
The now 39-year-old was able to use all of his experience to negate the American’s offense by grappling.
In this fight, wrestling is Rosas’ world and his win over another veteran in Rob Font last time out showed his growing experience in implementing a better game plan.
The 21-year-old scored 16 of 18 takedowns, with over 10 minutes of control time against Font to comfortably win all three rounds, despite not overly attacking submissions and looking to end the fight within the distance.
Expect Rosas Jr. to test the Brazilian’s willingness to grapple and not hang around kickboxing, with the early part of the fight likely to see Rosas’ grappling persistence against Barcelos’ takedown defense.
Despite being 39 years old Barcelos hasn’t shown major signs of deterioration and will have a significant advantage on the feet for however long the fight is standing.
Although Rosas Jr. is improving, Barcelos’ all-round capabilities make this a difficult proposition, particularly over the extended five rounds.
The veteran is worth siding with to weather any early storm and make his experience and doggedness count down the stretch.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos odds
Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | |
Moneyline | -160 | +135 |
By Decision or Technical Decision | +220 | +350 |
By KO, TKO or DQ | +600 | +425 |
By Submission | +310 | +1200 |
Total Rounds | Over | Under |
1.5 | -500 | +350 |
2.5 | -260 | +195 |
3.5 | -165 | +130 |
4.5 | -120 | -110 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
