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The Open First Round Leader Predictions & Best Bets

The Major season comes to an end this week when 156 players descend upon the famous Royal Birkdale in Southport for the 154th Open Championship.

This will be the 11th time Royal Birkdale has staged this illustrious tournament, having last done so in 2017 when Jordan Spieth claimed the spoils.

After missing the cut at last week’s Scottish Open, world number one and defending Open champion Scottie Scheffler will be eager for a swift response as he bids to become the first player since Padraig Harrington in 2008 to successfully retain the Claret Jug.

A sunny week is forecast on Merseyside, which will make the course firm, fast and difficult to post low numbers on, especially if the wind starts to pick up.

The first tee shot on Thursday is set for 01:35 EST with the opening drive being hit by Royal Birkdale member Matthew Baldwin, who is joined by Belgian Thomas Detry and American James Nicholas.

Scheffler is out at 04:58 alongside Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton, while Rory McIlroy starts his quest for a second Open Championship at 10:15 with Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

The Open First Round Leader betting picks and predictions

Justin Rose each-way (+4000)

World number 10 Justin Rose has made a habit of making fast starts and he has been two shots off the first-round lead in two of his last four events.

The 45-year-old was tied fourth after day one of the 2024 Open Championship and he was just two strokes back of the early pacesetters in the 2025 edition at Royal Portrush.

Rose has performed well in the Majors this year, finishing tied third at the Masters, tied 10th at the PGA Championship and tied 11th at the US Open, so he seems to be saving some of his best golf for the biggest stages.

The Englishman also has fond memories of Royal Birkdale, as this is the course where he burst onto the scene as an amateur in the 1998 Open when he birdied the 72nd hole to finish tied fourth and claim the silver medal.

Rose, who is teeing off at 04:36 alongside Russell Henley and Viktor Hovland, looks set for another strong showing and he can set the clubhouse lead on Thursday.

Wyndham Clark each-way (+4000)

American Wyndham Clark has enjoyed a fantastic couple of months, having won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May before landing his second US Open title three starts later.

The 32-year-old’s last six results read 1-3-T11-1-T5-T13, with the most recent performance coming at last week’s Scottish Open.

Clark shot an opening round of 64 to lead the US Open after day one - a lead he never relinquished - while he was also tied for the lead after the opening 18 holes at The Memorial Tournament in June.

The world number eight, who was tied fourth at last year’s Open, is also 13th in round one scoring average on the PGA Tour this season.

Matt Fitzpatrick each-way (+2500)

Another player who ranks highly in round one scoring average on the PGA Tour this season is Matt Fitzpatrick, who sits in fourth position with a 69.00 average.

The Englishman has recorded three victories this year, two as an individual at the Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage and one playing alongside younger brother Alex at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Fitzpatrick, who is at a career-high third in the world rankings, warmed up for the Open with a tied-third effort at the Scottish Open, where he started off with a round of 67 to sit just two shots off the pace.

The 31-year-old’s last four outings have produced form figures of 2-22-4-T3 and he has been close to the first-round lead in all of those events.

Fitzpatrick was three strokes adrift after day one of the Canadian Open, tied third at the US Open after round one, and was in a share of second at the Travelers Championship after 18 holes.

Last week’s strong start in Scotland continued this impressive run and Fitzpatrick can get off to another quick start in Southport, just like he did in last year’s Open when he was tied for the lead heading into round two.

The Open First Round Leader Odds

Scottie Scheffler

+1800

Rory McIlroy

+2000

Matt Fitzpatrick

+2500

Tommy Fleetwood

+3000

Jon Rahm

+3500

Xander Schauffele

+3500

Chris Gotterup

+3500

Justin Rose

+4000

Tyrrell Hatton

+4000

Robert MacIntyre

+4000

Wyndham Clark

+4000

Collin Morikawa

+4000

Ludvig Aberg

+4000

Viktor Hovland

+4000

Read the latest PGA Tour news.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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