Quarterback is the most important position in football, and we usually see a few go off the board early in the first round of the NFL Draft.
In 2023, we saw three quarterbacks taken in the top-five (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson). In 2024, a record-tying six quarterbacks were taken in the first round (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix).
Due to their positional value and ability to potentially change a franchise for the better, teams often reach for a quarterback, making them go higher than they are ranked pound-for-pound compared to all other positions.
Also, the fifth-year option that teams get for players drafted in the first round is especially enticing for the quarterback position, as their second contract in the NFL is often a massive pay raise compared to their rookie deal.
However, 2025 and 2026 are different. Last year and this year are similar in the ways that there is a slam-dunk No. 1 quarterback prospect, but no other QB threatening to be selected in the top ten. Rather, the second QB will be selected towards the back-end of the first round or the top of the second round.
It was Cam Ward in 2025 to the Tennessee Titans at No. 1 overall, and it'll be Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026.
Last year, Jaxson Dart was a question mark to be drafted in the first round, but the New York Giants decided to draft him with the No. 25 overall pick. This year, the same question mark surrounds former Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.
Dart's success with the Giants last year may help Simpson's stock in the back-half of the first round where QB-needy teams like the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns are picking.
The Jets hold the No. 2 and No. 16 picks in the draft, and that No. 16 pick seems like the ceiling for Simpson's stock. Considering the amount of holes on the Jets, plus the signing of veteran Geno Smith, the Steelers at No. 21 make more sense.
Simpson has a quick release, similar to Aaron Rodgers' in Green Bay where he and current Steelers' head coach Mike McCarthy were together for several years. If McCarthy is looking for a thrower similar to Rodgers, Simpson could be his guy.
Once the Steelers pick passes, however, it will most likely take a team trading up back into the first round for Simpson to get drafted there. Sure the Browns are in need of a quarterback, but after selecting Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders in last year's draft, it's hard to see them selecting yet another rookie QB that isn't a top prospect.
bet365 has a market up for there to be over or under 1.5 quarterbacks to be selected in the first round, let's take a look at what the bookmakers think.
How Many Quarterbacks will be Drafted in the First Round of the 2026 Draft?
Over 1.5 | -210 |
Under 1.5 | +165 |
Oddsmakers do believe that Ty Simpson will be picked in the first round, as it's -210 that he'll be picked in the first 32 selections, implying a 67% chance. However, +165 is certainly still a possibility - implying a 37% chance that he'll fall to the second round.
If Simpson does end up going on Day 2, expect the Jets to pick him with the first pick of the second round, No. 33 overall.
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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
