The 2026 NFL prospects have been able to put plenty on film this past college football season, and Fernando Mendoza is virtually a lock after leading Indiana to their first National Championship last season.
After projected No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore decided to return to Oregon for his senior year, Mendoza became a lock to go No. 1 overall.
Standout defenders Arvell Reese and David Bailey are Mendoza's biggest challengers, but the Las Vegas Raiders are set on building around the top quarterback prospect.
Here's a look at the odds to go No. 1 overall this Thursday.
2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds
Fernando Mendoza | -50000 |
Arvell Reese | +10000 |
David Bailey | +12500 |
Ty Simpson | +15000 |
Caleb Downs | +15000 |
Jeremiyah Love | +15000 |
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-50000) is the clear favorite to be picked first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. At the time, Moore's announcement dropped Mendoza's odds from -1000 to -20000. After an offseason of film, the Combine, and the Pro Day, Mendoza is now an even larger favorite to go No. 1 overall.
The Cal-transfer has transformed Indiana's team from a solid, defensive-minded unit last year to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL build, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.
He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten Championship, the National Championship, and the No. 1 seed entering the playoff.
Arvell Reese is the second-favorite to go No. 1 overall at +10000. The Buckeyes linebacker0 is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and rush the QB.
He's exceptionally strong, quick, and agile and dominated the NFL Combine.
Texas Tech's David Bailey is next at +12500.
The pass rusher stands 6' 3" tall, and 250 lbs. In 2025 he led the country in sacks (14.5) and the Big 12 in tackles for loss (19.5). Bailey has surpassed fellow EDGE prospect Rueben Bain Jr. who has been docked by scouts for having shorter arms than traditional elite pass rushers.
Alabama's Simpson (+15000) is the second QB on this list after carrying a Crimson Tide offense that could hardly run the ball. The junior had 3,567 passing yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing five picks.
Simpson is smooth and accurate with a quick throwing motion that should translate well to the NFL.
Ohio State's safety Caleb Downs (+15000) is a projected top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come up to lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.
Former Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (+15000) has shot-up draft boards and now is expected go be selected within the top five picks of the draft.
He's a terrific running back prospect with all the tools (speed, power, agility, pass-catching abillity) needed to be a superstar in the NFL.
Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on favorite to go No. 1, but after a slower year than expected he plans to return to Texas for another season.
Discover more from bet365
Read the latest NFL news on site.
Read the latest NCAA Football news on site.
Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
