Pittsburgh Pirates (38-37, 18-18 away from home, 4th in NL Central, +14 run differential) travel to Denver, Colorado to begin a weekend series against the Rockies (28-47, 14-20 at home, 5th in NL West, -90 run differential).
This is the second and final series between these squads in 2026. The Pirates took the first series in early May at home, with scores of 3-1, 4-10 and 7-2.
The Pirates come off a series win in Sacramento against the A's, while the Rockies return home from Wrigley Field on the North side of Chicago, where they lost two of three.
Despite their poor record, the Rockies enter 39-36 against the run line, while the Under on the run total has been more prevalent in their games, hitting 38 times.
The Pirates, on the other hand, enter 38-37 against the run line, with the Over on the run total dominating their games, hitting 44 times.
First pitch is at 9:40 PM ET and Bubba Chandler toes the rubber for Pittsburgh, opposite Kyle Freeland for the Rockies.
Pirates vs. Rockies betting picks and predictions
Pirates ML (-135)
The 23-year-old right-handed throwing Chandler has the upper hand in this pitching matchup by season metrics and because the Rockies have next to no experience against him, totaling zero hits in four at-bats up and down their roster.
You could argue Chandler's first appearance at Coors Field could be dangerous for him and the Pirates, but as a four-seam fastball/changeup dominant arm, his stuff should play well in the thin air.
Especially when you consider he averages 98.4 MPH on the fastball and his changeup has graded as one of the better offspeed pitches in baseball this season.
Chandler has also been great the first two times through the order, limiting opponents to a sub .200 AVG and sub .660 OPS.
On the flip side, Freeland owns the worst qualified ERA among starting pitchers in all of baseball (7.98) to pair with a frightful 1.70 WHIP, allowing 14 long balls in 58.2 innings.
He has been crushed by both sides of the plate, and righties are tagging him for a .335 AVG and .983 OPS.
Pirates hitters haven’t dominated him in the past, but with the 11th best batting average against left-handed pitching in baseball this year, I expect this improved offense to string together hits and exploit Freeland’s .292 AVG and .884 OPS against with men in scoring position.
Over 11.5 total runs (-105)
I will gladly and blindly take the Over in this situation. While a 4.76 ERA vs a 7.98 ERA pitching matchup may create an intriguing opportunity to zag, I am not overthinking this one at Coors.
Plus, this game features two top-10 home run leaders in 2026, with Hunter Goodman's 21 ranking fourth for Colorado and Brandon Lowe's 18 ranking 10th for Pittsburgh.
Notably, the Rockies back Freeland's porous ERA with an MLB-worst Bullpen ERA of 5.12. On the other side, Pittsburgh's bullpen doesn't fare much better, ranking 19th with a 4.43 mark.
Seven of Chandler's 13 starts have totaled nine runs or more, while nine consecutive Freeland starts have totaled nine runs or more.
TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+525)
Rookie first baseman TJ Rumfield has provided some nice middle-of-the-order thump for this lineup, hitting .275 with 10 home runs, 37 RBIs and an .816 OPS.
Against right-handed pitching he has been a menace, hitting .283 with an .873 OPS and nine of his 10 home runs.
Over the last seven days, he is hitting .321 with two long balls and an OPS north of 1.000. We are catching him at the right time, and if he times up a Chandler fastball, the ball could travel a long ways here.
He isn't the most obvious candidate but he is a great value pick.
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Pirates vs. Rockies Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates | -135 ML |
Colorado Rockies | +115 ML |
Run Line | Pirates -1.5 |
Total | O/U 11.5 |
Pirates vs. Rockies player props
Player home run odds
Hunter Goodman (COL Rockies) | +300 |
Brandon Lowe (PIT Pirates) | +320 |
Bryan Reynolds (PIT Pirates) | +390 |
Marcell Ozuna (PIT Pirates) | +400 |
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT Pirates) | +425 |
Henry Davis (PIT Pirates) | +450 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
