After a five-run fourth inning propelled the Milwaukee Brewers (23-16) to a 6-4 series opening win against the San Diego Padres (24-17) on Tuesday night, they now enter game two of the series riding a five-game win streak.
We have a thrilling pitching matchup on tap for everyone, as perhaps Milwaukee’s most terrifying weapon, Jacob Misiorowski, is countered by the Padres’ late-blooming starting pitching star, Michael King.
With the Brewers looking to keep pace with the Cubs in the NL Central and the Padres fighting to maintain their share of the NL West lead, Wednesday’s showdown is about more than just a mid-May win.
Padres vs. Brewers betting picks and predictions
Brewers -1.5 (+150)
There is an old adage in baseball that you don’t bet against a heat-seeker at home, and Jacob Misiorowski is precisely that.
Since Freddy Peralta’s departure, the second-year Misiorowski has stepped into the ace role with a level of authority that has given all of baseball fits.
Currently leading the National League with a staggering 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings, he has turned American Family Field into a house of horrors for visiting lineups.
The Padres’ offense has been uncharacteristically quiet to begin 2026, particularly with Fernando Tatis Jr. still searching for his first home run of the campaign.
San Diego ranks just 25th in OPS vs right-handed pitching (.678), and 20th in baseball with 40 home runs. While Michael King has been a model of consistency for San Diego on the mound (posting a 2.76 ERA), he lacks the swing-and-miss insurance that Misiorowski carries into every count.
Plus, Brice Turang and Sal Frelick, two pesky left-handed hitters in the Brewers lineup, are a combined 6-for-16 lifetime against King.
Given that the Brewers are coming off a sweep of the Yankees and have scored 4+ in each game during this win streak, the momentum in this building is palpable and they should be able to sweep aside the Padres.
Under 7 Total Runs (-120)
Yes, the Brewers hung six runs on Tuesday, but they did so against the back end of the Padres’ rotation.
On Wednesday, they face King, who has allowed eight total earned runs over his last five starts (29 IP). King’s ability to induce soft contact is the perfect match for Milwaukee’s high-contact, low hard-hit-rate bats.
On the other side, Misiorowski is essentially a run-scoring desert. In his last start against the Yankees, he mowed down 11 hitters over six scoreless innings. He has only allowed six total earned runs in his past five starts combined, striking out 42 in that 27.2 inning-stretch.
When you have two starters with WHIPs hovering around the 1.00 mark, the margin for error is razor-thin. And while we have already chronicled the Padres’ poor hitting in the section above, In addition to the weak contact rate, the Brewers ranks dead last in MLB with 27 home runs, and just 20th with a .692 OPS.
Expect a 4-2 or 3-1 type of ballgame where every base runner is a monumental achievement.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-160)
This 24-year-old right-hander has become a human highlight reel, having recorded eight or more strikeouts in five of seven starts this year.
The Padres’ lineup, while dangerous at the top, becomes increasingly vulnerable as you move toward the bottom. Misiorowski’s high-spin fastball and devastating slider are specifically designed to exploit the aggressive chase tendencies of San Diego’s hitters.
Even if the Padres manage to scratch out a run or two, Misiorowski’s pure K-rate (70 SO in 44 IP) suggests he only needs five innings of work to clear this hurdle.
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Padres vs. Brewers odds
Padres | +125 |
Brewers | -150 |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.0 |
Padres vs. Brewers player props
Player home run odds
Jackson Chourio (MIL Brewers) | +500 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD Padres) | +500 |
Manny Machado (SD Padres) | +525 |
Jackson Merrill (SD Padres) | +525 |
Gavin Sheets (SD Padres) | +575 |
Jake Bauers (MIL Brewers) | +600 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
