Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks close out their series Wednesday in a game with real National League playoff implications.
Arizona is still chasing San Diego for the final NL Wild Card spot and has a chance to take the series after Miami swept the Diamondbacks in June. Monday's opener showed how thin the margin is between these teams, with Corbin Carroll delivering a walk-off hit in an 8-7 Arizona win. Tuesday delivered more of the same, with the Marlins prevailing 4-2 in 11 innings.
The pitching matchup points toward another competitive, offense-friendly game. Ryan Gusto starts for Miami against veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly, and both starters have matchup concerns that should create scoring chances throughout the afternoon.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks betting picks and predictions
Diamondbacks Money Line (-135)
Arizona is laying some juice, but the Diamondbacks are preferred on the money line rather than forcing a run-line bet in a matchup that could stay close.
The Marlins right-hander, Gusto, lowered his ERA to 4.14 after holding the Dodgers to two runs across six innings in his last start, but the underlying profile remains much less impressive. Gusto owns a 4.84 expected ERA and has struggled more away from home, pitching to a 4.45 road ERA.
His Statcast profile also raises plenty of concerns. Gusto sits in the 30th percentile in pitching run value, the seventh percentile in expected batting average, the 13th percentile in whiff rate, and the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate.
That is a difficult formula against an Arizona lineup that combines patience with excellent bat-to-ball ability. The Diamondbacks have one of the lowest whiff rates in baseball and should have plenty of opportunities against a pitcher who lives in the strike zone.
Arizona ranks fifth in MLB with a .750 OPS since the All-Star break and owns a .741 OPS at home. The Diamondbacks have also been excellent from the right side of the plate, ranking fourth in baseball in that split, while Gusto has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .277 with a .748 OPS.
Gusto has also allowed opponents to hit .359 with a 1.097 OPS the third time through the order. Arizona ranks ninth in MLB offensively in the sixth inning, which is often exactly when that third look arrives.
Kelly is not without risk, but he is pitching much better recently. He has allowed seven earned runs over his last 23 innings, good for a 2.74 ERA across his last four starts.
Arizona also has greater urgency, so back the Diamondbacks to finish the series with another win.
Over 9 Total Runs (-110)
This is the favorite bet in the game. Gusto's lack of swing-and-miss ability gives Arizona a strong path toward putting together multiple-run innings, but the Marlins are more than capable of contributing against Kelly.
Miami hitters have seen him well historically, collecting 18 hits in 60 at-bats. Otto Lopez is 6-for-10 with three doubles against Kelly, Kyle Stowers is 2-for-6 with a home run, and Xavier Edwards has three hits in 10 at-bats.
Kelly has been much better recently, but his full-season numbers remain vulnerable. He owns a 4.97 ERA over 152 innings and has struggled badly at Chase Field, where his ERA sits at 5.83.
Left-handed hitters have also produced an .857 OPS against him. Miami ranks seventh in MLB with a .744 OPS against right-handed pitching and 10th with a .743 OPS from the left-handed batter’s box.
However, the Marlins offense is not something to dismiss just because Kelly is in better form.
Both bullpens sit around the middle of the pack, so there is no elite relief unit waiting to completely shut down the late innings, either.
Monday's 8-7 game is a useful reminder of how quickly scoring can escalate at Chase Field in this matchup.
Expect another back-and-forth contest, with Arizona doing most of its damage against Gusto while Miami finds enough against Kelly and the bullpen to get us past 8.5.
Gabriel Moreno to Hit a Home Run (+700)
Moreno is the favorite long-shot home run target on the board.
The Arizona catcher has been one of the most consistent players in the Diamondbacks' lineup, batting .301, which ranks sixth in MLB, while providing elite value defensively behind the plate.
His overall production has made him one of the most valuable catchers in baseball, and he leads all MLB catchers with 5.2 bWAR.
Moreno leads Arizona regulars with an .873 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Gusto’s contact-heavy profile gives him plenty of opportunity to square something up.
Because Gusto throws in the zone so often and ranks poorly in both expected batting average and hard-hit rate, he is exactly the type of pitcher who can get punished when his command is even slightly off.
Moreno is also 1-for-1 with a walk in his limited career history against Gusto.
He went deep last night, and the quality of his season suggests the catcher is ready to go deep back-to-back nights.
At +700, take Moreno to connect for his 14th home run of the season.
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Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds
Miami Marlins | -115 ML |
Arizona Diamondbacks | -135 ML |
Run Line | ARZ Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9 |
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks player props
Player home run odds
Kyle Stowers (MIA Marlins) | +375 |
Corbin Carroll (ARZ Diamondbacks) | +425 |
Heriberto Hernandez (MIA Marlins) | +500 |
Griffin Conine (MIA Marlins) | +550 |
Ketel Marte (ARZ Diamondbacks) | +575 |
Nolan Arenado (ARZ Diamondbacks) | +700 |
Gabriel Moreno (ARZ Diamondbacks) | +700 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
