Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians continue a massive September series Wednesday night at Progressive Field with both clubs fighting for position around the final American League Wild Card spot.
Only a couple of games separate the two teams, making every head-to-head result increasingly important with the regular season winding down.
Cleveland took two of three in Toronto back in April and Tuesday's opener also features an excellent pitching matchup.
Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease gets the ball for Toronto opposite Cleveland left-hander Joey Cantillo, and with two struggling offenses, strong bullpens and excellent defenses involved, runs could be difficult to manufacture.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians betting picks and predictions
Blue Jays Money Line (-115)
This is essentially a toss-up according to the market, but I am willing to trust Toronto's ace in one of the biggest games of the season.
Cease enters with a 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 217 strikeouts, placing him among the American League leaders in all three categories.
He has been even more dominant away from home, pitching to a 1.67 road ERA.
Since the beginning of July, Cease has recorded five scoreless starts and three more in which he allowed only one run.
He has surrendered as many as three runs just twice over that span, giving Toronto an extremely high floor every fifth day.
Cleveland has had mixed results against him historically. Guardians hitters are 26-for-105 with a .701 OPS lifetime, but much of that production is concentrated among a handful of bats.
Nathaniel Lowe is 5-for-13 with two homers and five walks, while Steven Kwan has seven hits in 25 at-bats.
The rest of Cleveland's biggest names have struggled. Jose Ramirez owns just a .467 OPS in 30 at-bats against Cease, while Jo Adell has struck out six times with a .455 OPS in 11 at-bats.
Cantillo is no pushover. The left-hander owns a 3.70 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 136.1 innings and posted a strong 2.78 ERA across five August appearances.
Toronto's biggest problem is the matchup itself. The Blue Jays rank 29th in baseball with a .645 OPS against left-handed pitching, which could allow Cantillo to keep this close.
Still, right-handed hitters have produced a .752 OPS against him, and Toronto has gone 5-for-15 with two doubles and a home run in limited previous exposure.
In a game with this much postseason weight, I prefer Cease's ability to miss bats and dominate deep into outings, while Toronto also owns one of baseball's best defenses and a Top-10 bullpen.
Under 7 Total Runs (-110)
Seven is an uncomfortable number for an Under, but nearly every major matchup trend points toward a low-scoring game.
Cleveland ranks only 22nd in home OPS at .704, while Toronto is 23rd on the road at .685.
Neither club has improved much since the All-Star break, with Cleveland posting a .702 OPS and Toronto sitting at .685.
Toronto ranks second-to-last in OPS against left-handed pitching, while Cleveland ranks 26th against righties.
Both starters are therefore facing lineups that have struggled throughout the season against their respective handedness.
Situational hitting has also been a problem. The Blue Jays and Guardians rank 27th and 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position, making it difficult to trust either offense to capitalize when opportunities arise.
Cleveland's late-game numbers are particularly ugly. The Guardians rank last in baseball with a .649 OPS from the seventh inning onward, while Toronto is only 20th at .695.
That is important because both bullpens carry ERAs below 3.80 and rank inside the league's Top 10.
Defense provides another reason to expect limited scoring. Toronto ranks second in baseball with +39 Fielding Run Value, trailing only the Cubs, while Cleveland sits sixth at +18.
Progressive Field has also played more favorably toward pitchers, although warm temperatures and possible storms are worth monitoring closer to first pitch.
Nathaniel Lowe To Hit A Home Run (+500)
Backing a home run against Cease might seem contradictory after making the Under my preferred total play, but if Cleveland does get to Toronto's ace, Lowe is the hitter I want.
Lowe has not only done damage when Cease comes into the strike zone, but has consistently seen him well enough to avoid chasing and force favorable counts.
That kind of familiarity matters against a pitcher with Cease's swing-and-miss arsenal.
Lowe has not been consistently productive since arriving in Cleveland at the trade deadline, but there are signs he could be heating up.
He homered Sunday, and Tuesday gives him an opportunity to build on that momentum against a pitcher he has already solved multiple times.
The rest of Cleveland's primary power bats have much worse histories against Cease. Ramirez has struggled badly in the matchup and Adell has had difficulty making contact.
Lowe appears to offer the best combination of matchup history, price and recent momentum.
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Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds
Toronto Blue Jays | -115 ML |
Cleveland Guardians | -105 ML |
Run Line | CLE Guardians -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7 |
Blue Jays vs. Guardians player props
Player home run odds
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR Blue Jays) | +385 |
Jo Adell (CLE Guardians) | +385 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians) | +460 |
Nathaniel Lowe (CLE Guardians) | +490 |
Chase DeLauter (CLE Guardians) | +510 |
George Springer (TOR Blue Jays) | +540 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
