The Millennium Estoril Open will be especially sweet for whoever emerges victorious from Sunday's final as it will represent a first ATP Tour title for either Alexander Blockx or Luca Van Assche.
Blockx might be forgiven for thinking that his name is already on the trophy after coming back from the brink in the semifinals to reach the showpiece, on seemingly multiple occasions.
The 21-year-old was 5-2 down in the second set against second seed Luciano Darderi, having lost the first, before falling 4-2 behind in the third set, while he was 4-1 down in the deciding tiebreak too, only to recover each time and book his place in his first ATP Tour final.
Van Assche has hardly had an easier time of things as his first three matches all went the distance, before he overcame fellow Frenchman Hugo Gaston in the last four.
The 22-year-old accounted for top seed Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals, coming from a set down to win 3-6 6-3 6-4, which came on the back of defeating eighth seed Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 4-6 6-2 so he should not be overawed by facing another higher-ranked player.
Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx betting picks and predictions
Luca Van Assche ML (+150)
Blockx came into this tournament with a much higher ranking of 38, compared to Van Assche at 78, and has been installed as the -188 favorite as the fourth seed but his French opponent is worth backing at odds of +150 to land something of an upset.
Van Assche has already beaten two high-level opponents with top seed and world number 14 Rublev seen off in the quarterfinals, while he also got the better of two-time Grand Slam semifinalist and Masters 1000 winner Pablo Carreno Busta.
While it was no cakewalk Van Assche also had the easier time in the semifinals and could have an edge on the fitness front, but more importantly, he has beaten Blockx before, and it wasn't particularly close either.
This will be the first meeting between the two at ATP Tour level but the pair did clash earlier this year in the final of the Play In Challenger in Lille with Van Assche running out a 6-2 6-4 winner.
Van Assche also gave Titouan Droguet a much closer game in defeat in Croatia two weeks ago as another formline between these two finalists.
With one victory, in a final too, already under his belt, odds of +150 for a second for Van Assche look appealing.
Total Sets - 3 (+137)
While Van Assche won the previous meeting between the two fairly comfortably, that was on indoor hard courts, and there looks to be a very good chance this game will go to a deciding set.
Since retiring in the first round of Wimbledon, Van Assche has played six matches on clay with five of those needing a third set to decide the outcome, which includes beating Rublev and Carreno Busta but also the 235th-ranked Frederico Ferreira Silva.
Blockx took a set of Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon as well as forcing three tiebreaks, while all four of his subsequent matches on this slower surface have gone to a third set.
Odds of +137 for another three-setter look tempting.
Over 3.5 Alexander Blockx double faults (-110)
Blockx may well fire down more aces but his serve could still come under a little pressure and he could pass his double-fault line, regardless of the match outcome.
The Belgian has served 17 in his three matches up to this point, with totals of seven, four and six to pass his line of 3.5 against each opponent, and nerves are likely to have more of an impact given it is his first Championship match on the ATP Tour.
Van Assche has also had relative trouble with double faults, serving at least five in three of his matches, but with a total of 18 across his four games, his average is a little lower.
Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx odds
Luca Van Assche | +150 |
Alexander Blockx | -188 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
