England have a chance to reach the quarter-finals of the World Cup, but the small matter of an Azteca Stadium clash at altitude with Mexico stands in the way of the Three Lions.
Thomas Tuchel’s men face their toughest test of the competition and Mexico City is set for a thrilling contest.
Mexico vs. England betting picks and predictions
England to win (+140)
The build-up to England’s clash with Mexico at the Azteca Stadium has centered on El Tri’s home advantage which comes at 2,200 metres of elevation.
However, there has been little talk of the team that the Three Lions will actually be playing.
Of course, home turf is a boost to the progression chances of Mexico, but the Azteca factor appears to have been overplayed and there are more pressing considerations.
Javier Aguirre’s men have yet to even concede a goal in four World Cup games, but a tie with a top-level England team will demand more than fixtures against South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic and Ecuador so far have.
Four wins, eight goals and not conceding is an impressive record, but the performances haven’t been as comfortable as those results suggest.
Mexico achieved expected goals numbers of 0.53 and 1.05 in games against South Korea and Ecuador, and they gave up the bulk of possession to both of those sides.
England are a step up from that level and the Three Lions should control the game. Thomas Tuchel has a squad packed full of talent and the difference between the quality of the rosters is clear in attack.
Ballon d'Or favorite Harry Kane will lead the forward line for England, while Mexico, in contrast, will be reliant on 35-year-old Championship striker Raul Jimenez.
Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson have the physicality and quality to control the midfield area and England can be expected to dominate the Azteca contest.
As World Cup favorites France showed in their 1-0 victory over Paraguay, it’s difficult to play at the peak level across all eight matches of a condensed international tournament, but England’s performances have generally been pretty strong.
Tuchel’s side have registered xG numbers of 3.20, 1.36, 1.56 and 2.16 in their four matches in North America and the performances have been better than the scorelines suggest.
England have a stronger squad and a better starting line-up, which is likely to be the key factor at the Azteca and the Three Lions are fancied to roar in Mexico City.
Harry Kane to score two or more goals (+750)
Harry Kane has notched five times in four games at the World Cup and the Bayern Munich man hit a brace in games against Croatia and DR Congo.
The 32-year-old turned the last-32 tie with DR Congo in England’s favour late on and it is clear that Kane only needs a glimmer of a goalscoring chance to find the net.
The Londoner scored an incredible 61 times in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich this season and the former Spurs striker will be on penalty-taking duty for England against Mexico too.
It’s 84 goals in 118 appearances for the Three Lions, and there are few more reliable goalscorers on the world stage.
Kane is the focal point of Tuchel’s attack and, at +750, backing the 32-year-old to score two or more goals appears to hold some value.
Under 3.5 cards (-150)
Prior to Sunday’s last-16 tie between Brazil and Norway, the previous seven World Cup matches have featured only 18 cards.
Only one of those matches has bust the 3.5 line and that amazingly includes the incredibly physical clash between Paraguay and France.
It’s clear that referees aren’t keen on brandishing bookings this summer and Mexico have received only four cards in four World Cup games.
England have been shown just three yellows thus far, and backing under 3.5 cards rates a play in Mexico City.
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Mexico vs. England odds
Mexico | +140 |
Tie | +220 |
England | +240 |
Mexico vs. England player props
Anytime goalscorer
Harry Kane (England) | +130 |
Raul Jimenez (Mexico) | +260 |
Bukayo Saka (England) | +350 |
Anthony Gordon (England) | +350 |
Julian Quinones (Mexico) | +350 |
Jude Bellingham (England) | +375 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
