Philadelphia Phillies (40-34, 2nd in NL East, 21-18 at home, -18 run differential) play host to New York Mets (33-41, 5th in NL East, 15-23 away from home, -17 run differential).
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on MLB.TV and MLB Network.
Despite it being June 18, this series opener also serves as the first of 13 matchups between the division-rival Mets and Phillies in 2026.
The Mets are coming off a series loss to Cincinnati Reds, although they did win at Cincy to salvage a sweep by a count of 9-1.
Bo Bichette and Juan Soto each recorded three hits, and Bichette has multi-hit games in six straight now. He has awoken after a disappointing start to his tenure in a Mets uniform.
The Phillies stay at home after taking two of three from Miami Marlins, although they did lose 12-4 yesterday.
Mets vs. Phillies betting picks and predictions
Mets ML (+105)
There's a reason the Mets are close to even-money on the road, despite being seven games worse than the Phillies, and I am buying into it.
There just is no faith in Phillies' veteran starter Aaron Nola. The 33-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 5.86 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the season, surrendering 13 home runs in 70.2 innings.
Through three June starts, Nola has allowed 10 runs in 14 innings, including three home runs allowed.
At home, Nola has been even worse, pitching to a 6.21 ERA. Lefties are tattooing him for a .292 AVG and .881 OPS, while righties are holding their own with a .270 AVG and .771 OPS.
The Mets have also seen Nola a lot, accumulating an .820 OPS with six long balls in 96 at-bats.
Notably, the heart of the Mets' order, featuring Bichette and Soto, is a combined 14-for-53 against him with four doubles, four home runs, 16 walks to 14 strikeouts and an OPS near 1.000.
The Phillies have magically won seven of Nola's last eight starts and that trend just simply cannot continue with how poorly he has pitched.
Despite the Mets' struggles against RHP and hitting on the road, they stay hot after nine runs yesterday and pull out a shootout victory.
We will get to the Mets' starting pitching vulnerabilities in this matchup further down, but the key factor in this type of matchup will be the bullpens.
The Mets rank fifth with a 3.34 bullpen ERA and come in rested, while the Phillies rank 14th with a 3.87 bullpen ERA and enter taxed.
Over 9.5 total runs (+105)
I am not scared to back the Over at plus-money here.
The Phillies go from dead last in OPS away from home to 10th in OPS at home (.745), and they get to face off against veteran left-hander Sean Manaea, who is making just his second start of the season while sporting a 4.78 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in 49 IP.
The Phillies have also seen him plenty, and see him well, accumulating a .297 AVG and .864 OPS across 111 at-bats, with six home runs.
The key here though is that Manaea has held Kyle Schwarber (MLB leader in home runs with 25) in check with two hits allowed in 13 at-bats.
JT Realmuto and Brandon Marsh are also a combined 0-for-15 against him, but Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and especially Edmundo Sosa, have done damage, which will help the Phillies' offense produce and contribute to the Over.
I see this game trading blows in the early innings, while the bullpens are forced to enter early and do damage control. The Mets' bullpen outpitches Philly's and the Mets win a back-and-forth 7-5 type game, clearing the Over on the run total.
Bichette will record his seventh straight multi-hit game, bolstering his already ludicrous June (.362 AVG, .999 OPS), while helping his team win and helping this game clear the Over.
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+290)
It's an obvious pick, but sometimes the obvious choice pays.
Soto has been doing Soto things in 2026, albeit quietly. He leads the Mets with a .297 AVG and 15 home runs and is second in all of baseball with a .948 OPS.
In June, he has been a bit down, hitting .240 with a .767 OPS, but a three-hit day last time out is just what the doctor ordered to get him going again.
He has seen Nola 43 times and has three doubles and three home runs off him. In total against the Phillies' staff, he owns a .924 career OPS.
He's the pick to click to deliver a big blow.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
Mets vs. Phillies odds
New York Mets | +105 ML |
Philadelphia Phillies | -120 ML |
Run Line | Phillies -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.5 |
Mets vs. Phillies player props
Player home run odds
Kyle Schwarber (PHI Phillies) | +235 |
Juan Soto (NY Mets) | +290 |
Jared Young (NY Mets) | +375 |
Bryce Harper (PHI Phillies) | +390 |
MJ Melendez (NY Mets) | +450 |
Trea Turner (PHI Phillies) | +475 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
