Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Pick & Odds

Italian players love the ebb and flow of clay-court tennis and that could act as a leveller when Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi clash with a place in the French Open final at stake.

However, Cobolli’s career has taken a sizable upturn in the last couple of seasons and given the way the Tuscan dismissed Arnaldi in last year’s clay Grand Slam tournament in Paris, the Ligurian may do well to keep tabs on his compatriot.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli betting picks and predictions

Flavio Cobolli -4.5 games handicap (-110)

Cobolli is no stranger to success on clay - he won the Hamburg title last year and hardly any poor players go all the way at the Rothenbaum venue.

However, the fascinating thing with Cobolli is that, if anything, he has been making even more progress on fast courts than on slow ones in recent times.

The upshot is that Cobolli is becoming an extremely well-rounded performer capable of troubling the best on any terrain. Witness events at Wimbledon last summer, when he took top youngster Jakub Mensik apart in three sets.

Cobolli has still been growing as a player on clay as well, though. Prior to going all the way in Hamburg, he took the title in Bucharest. But his third ATP title came on the hard courts in Acapulco, showing what a fine job he is doing of mixing it up in his career.

With all this confidence gleaned, it’s perhaps no surprise that Cobolli has followed his quarterfinal placing on the Wimbledon grass last year with a semifinal run on the Paris clay this season.

In the wake of his four-set victory over Arnaldi in last year’s French Open, Cobolli, whose game supremacy was 10 in that match, has continued to improve so a similar make-up can be anticipated, possibly even in straight sets this time around.

Matteo Arnaldi not to win two sets (-125)

With a 3-0 win for Cobolli in the pair’s sixth career meeting a real possibility, backing Arnaldi not to win two sets looks an option to consider strongly.

In the early days of their personal series, there were plenty of three-set matches in which Arnaldi prevailed. But Cobolli is the younger of the two by a year and now he nears his mid-20s, his all-round game has become a good deal stronger than it once was.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Arnaldi was to win a set - that’s more likely to happen than Cobolli winning 3-0 - but with the favorite having gone up a notch or two, Arnaldi may do well to keep tabs on his friend and opponent.

Fitness-wise, Arnaldi is the type to scurry around all day and five sets would not faze him, as he showed when fighting back from two sets down to pip Frances Tiafoe in round four.

But while Tiafoe is an admirable battler on clay, he’s only ever going to be so good. And the likelihood is that Cobolli has long since surpassed the Big Foe’s level on clay and the Rome resident may not be as charitable against Arnaldi as the 28-year-old American was.

Flavio Cobolli to win match (-250)

It’s sometimes difficult to remember when searching for prices that may be deemed to be better value, but Cobolli is actually not that bad a price to win the match and progress to his first Grand Slam singles final.

Backing Arnaldi to serve more double faults than Cobolli at -333 should oblige - when the pair met on the Paris clay last year Arnaldo served eight doubles compared to Cobolli’s one.

But even that is a shorter price than Cobolli winning their semifinal and there is a reasonable case for believing that the favorite should be shorter after his authoritative victory over his compatriot in last year’s clay Slam.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli odds

Matteo Arnaldi	+200
Flavio Cobolli	-250

Read the latest tennis news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.