Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza: Who Starts Week 1? Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders' first pick was the easiest decision made at the 2026 NFL Draft.

They selected former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who was a slam-dunk No. 1 overall prospect, to lead their franchise going forward.

Even in a class stacked with talented defenders at premium positions like David Bailey and Arvell Reese, Mendoza had been the heavy odds on favorite to go No. 1 overall the moment he led the Hoosiers to their first football national championship in school history.

He's a perfect prospect with all the tools to be a franchise quarterback. Accuracy, arm strength, vision, size, movement skills, football IQ, and leadership are all check marks. The next step is just to get him some experience playing against pros.

He will get that experience at training camp and during the offseason activities with Vegas, but he'll be competing, and learning from, a veteran QB in Kirk Cousins.

Cousins signed a one-year, $20 million deal with Vegas, coming over from the Atlanta Falcons where he started eight games and went 5-3 last year. Cousins threw for 1,721 yards, ten touchdowns, and had just a 1.9% interception rate - much better than his disastrous 2024 season that saw him throw 16 picks in 14 games.

Cousins was benched for rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. towards the end of the 2024 season, then started the 2025 on the bench until Penix Jr. partially tore his ACL in November.

Cousins' 15th season in the NFL could mostly be coming from the bench in favor of another rookie, but the two will battle it out in camp.

The veteran QB vs. rookie QB choice is always an interesting dilemma for teams that don't have much expectation to compete. Do you let the young QB "learn" from the older QB by watching from the sidelines? Or do you force to make the rookie QB learn on the fly by immediately throwing him in the fire to start the year?

The former question worked out well for Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson, but the latter question worked out for Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams.

Would the Broncos and Bears be as good as they were last year if their quarterbacks didn't experience a full season in their rookie years? Maybe, maybe not.

It should depend on the type of prospect the rookie QB is, and if the team is in a position to compete or not. If the rookie didn't play much in college, is raw, and might not feel comfortable immediately jumping into a leadership role, he should probably ride the bench for a little and learn from his older predecessor - especially if the team has some hope to compete.

If the team has holes, like Vegas, and if the incoming rookie QB had plenty of collegiate experience, feels pro-ready, and has the personality to be a leader right away - like Mendoza, he should probably start right away and learn that way.

There's no question about which QB will look more talented in camp. Mendoza is bigger, faster, stronger, and might be more accurate than Cousins. However, Cousins has the undeniable experience factor that so many teams find valuable.

If Vegas believes that Cousins should start, Raiders players might start questioning why the more talented QB is getting second-team reps in camp, while the older, slower, passer is taking most of the first-team reps.

Thankfully, that's not our decision to make. It's owner Mark Davis' and first-year head coach Klint Kubiak job to figure that out. We can gain additional context on that question by looking at what oddsmakers think will happen. Below is a look at the odds for the Raiders' starting quarterback in Week 1, with one being a semi-heavy favorite:

Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 Starting Quarterback Odds - Cousins or Mendoza?

Kirk Cousins	-300
Fernando Mendoza	+225
Any Other QB (Aidan O'Connell)	+2000

As of mid-May, oddsmakers believe that Cousins will indeed start Week 1. It'll be interesting to monitor this market see how these odds fluctuate as both QBs start to get going in training camp.

"Fernando Mendoza coming in as potentially the starting quarterback is just so exciting," Davis said in early May. "We've got the pieces in place, it's going to take a while to get all the players and everything, but I believe we're at the forefront of getting this thing going again."

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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.