The Las Vegas Raiders' first pick was the easiest decision made at the 2026 NFL Draft.
They selected former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who was a slam-dunk No. 1 overall prospect, to lead their franchise going forward.
Even in a class stacked with talented defenders at premium positions like David Bailey and Arvell Reese, Mendoza had been the heavy odds on favorite to go No. 1 overall the moment he led the Hoosiers to their first football national championship in school history.
He's a perfect prospect with all the tools to be a franchise quarterback. Accuracy, arm strength, vision, size, movement skills, football IQ, and leadership are all check marks. The next step is just to get him some experience playing against pros.
He will get that experience at training camp and during preseason, where he's been competing, and learning from, a veteran QB in Kirk Cousins.
The Raiders signed Cousins to a one-year, $20 million deal, coming over from the Atlanta Falcons where he started eight games and went 5-3 last year. Cousins threw for 1,721 yards, ten touchdowns, and had just a 1.9% interception rate - much better than his disastrous 2024 season that saw him throw 16 picks in 14 games.
The veteran QB vs. rookie QB choice is always an interesting dilemma for teams that don't have much expectation to compete. Do you let the young QB "learn" from the older QB by watching from the sidelines? Or do you force to make the rookie QB learn on the fly by immediately throwing him in the fire to start the year?
It should depend on the type of prospect the rookie QB is, and if the team is in a position to compete or not. If the rookie didn't play much in college, is raw, and might not feel comfortable immediately jumping into a leadership role, he should probably ride the bench for a little and learn from his older predecessor - especially if the team has some hope to compete.
There's no question about which QB is more talented. Mendoza is bigger, faster, stronger, and might be more accurate than Cousins. However, Cousins has the undeniable experience factor that so many teams find valuable. I have the belief that the best way to improve at something is by, simply, doing it. And you can't replicate true game reps without playing in the actual game. Fernando Mendoza should start Week 1 of the regular season for the Raiders.
In his first experience playing at game speed against pros, he excelled. Playing versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 of the preseason, Mendoza showed off all the tools that made him the undisputed best player in the draft. Early in the second quarter, he fired a bullet down the middle of the field, in between two linebackers, for a 19-yard pickup to Malik Benson. All in all, Mendoza finished the game completing 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, while getting sacked just once.
That throw to Benson was one that Cousins, at this point of his career, cannot make. While it may take a couple weeks of Mendoza starting for him to get comfortable, there's no rush for the Raiders to compete right away. By the time the second-half of the season comes around, Vegas may be a better team than if they start Cousins and insert Mendoza at some point around the middle of the season. Also, the Raiders' ceiling would become exponentially higher in 2027 with 15+ starts under the belt for Mendoza entering his sophomore year.
Recently, we've seen examples of rookie quarterbacks turning around a franchise almost immediately. Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix started every one of their games in their respective inaugural NFL seasons, while Drake Maye started 12 of 17 games. Now, all these teams are looked at as at least playoff contenders, and all these quarterbacks look like future of their franchise.
It seems like head coach Klint Kubiak has been thinking similarly. He changed his tone from cementing that Cousins is the starter for his team, to now saying that it's "his job to lose" after the first preseason game against the Cardinals. Then, in a joint practice against the Houston Texans on Tuesday, Mendoza debuted with the Raiders' first team unit. Between vague quotes when describing Cousins' chances to be the team's QB1 in Week 1, and an introduction to first-team reps for Mendoza against a different team, it seems like the rookie has been too good to keep on the bench.
Thankfully, this is not our decision to make. It's Mark Davis', Tom Brady's and Kubiak's job to figure that out. We can gain additional context on that question by looking at what oddsmakers think will happen. Below is a look at the odds for the Raiders' starting quarterback in Week 1, with one being a heavy favorite, for now:
Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 Starting Quarterback Odds - Cousins or Mendoza?
Kirk Cousins | -900 |
Fernando Mendoza | +550 |
Any Other QB (Aidan O'Connell) | +5000 |
As of late-August, oddsmakers believe that Cousins will indeed start Week 1. It'll be interesting to monitor this market see how these odds fluctuate as preseason continues.
"Fernando Mendoza coming in as potentially the starting quarterback is just so exciting," Davis said in early May. "We've got the pieces in place, it's going to take a while to get all the players and everything, but I believe we're at the forefront of getting this thing going again."
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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
