Cleveland Guardians look to right the ship in an interleague, interstate clash as they travel from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in a series opener that begins at 7 PM ET on ESPN.
The Guardians enter having lost five straight and they have scored a total of just four runs in their last four games, while the Reds are 6-3 since the All-Star break, having won all three series since.
If there's a stadium to wake up the bats, it's the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, but the Guardians will have their hands full with dominant 23-year-old flamethrower Chase Burns (13-1, 2.42 ERA, 124 K, 1.11 WHIP) opposing them.
It's a bit of a mismatch as Slade Cecconi takes the ball for the Guardians (4-7, 4.60 ERA, 82 K, 1.45 WHIP).
This will be the second and final series between these two teams, with the Guardians having taken two of three in Cleveland back in mid-May in a surprisingly high-scoring series.
Guardians vs. Reds betting picks and predictions
Reds -1.5 (+120)
Cecconi isn't coming into this contest with momentum and neither is the offense behind him, as the Reds were shut out in both Saturday's and Sunday's games in Tampa Bay.
Cecconi owns a 7.43 ERA in July and he has been worse on the road. He doesn't induce chase or whiff and he gives up hard contact.
The Reds are far from exciting on offense, but Cecconi has allowed a .280 AVG or worse against both left-handed and right-handed bats, and the Reds do have the third lowest chase rate in baseball.
On the other hand, the Guardians have never seen Burns before, which gives him a big advantage. He has been solid in July (2.81 ERA) and has been even better at home (2.32 ERA). He has one of the league's best sliders and he induces a ton of chase and whiff.
Cecconi has given up 15 homers on the year and the Reds rank fifth in baseball with 137 home runs.
The Reds score a couple early, Burns keeps this scuffling offense down and the Reds coast the rest of the way.
Under 8.5 total runs (-105)
When it comes to runs in this one, we do not have much cause for concern. I expect runs to come at a premium.
The Reds rank 21st in OPS at home and 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching. The Guardians rank 28th in OPS on the road and 26th in OPS vs right-handed pitching.
These teams also rank 25th and 26th in baseball in OPS in night games.
Cleveland's bullpen has been very solid this year, so after Cecconi gives up a couple early, I trust the pen to slow the Reds down.
On the flip side, the Reds bullpen has really struggled, but I expect Burns to go six or seven innings of one-run or scoreless ball.
The Guardians have been an under-friendly team, with the total staying below the set line 58 times.
Tyler Stephenson to hit a home run (+400)
The Reds' hottest hitter since the All-Star break has been catcher Tyler Stephenson. The 29-year-old right-handed bat is 6-for-18 with three doubles and two home runs.
Also, he is 3-for-7 lifetime against Cecconi with a double.
He is a reverse split guy who sees RHP far better (.759 OPS). Stephenson has struggled at home, but he is peaking at the right time for this matchup.
If I had to go with someone else, it would be Nathaniel Lowe, who has taken Cecconi deep before and has also homered twice since the break.
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Guardians vs. Reds odds
Cleveland Guardians | +145 ML |
Cincinnati Reds | -170 ML |
Run Line | CIN Reds -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.5 |
Guardians vs. Reds player props
Player home run odds
JJ Bleday (CIN Reds) | +325 |
Sal Stewart (CIN Reds) | +350 |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN Reds) | +350 |
Eugenio Suarez (CIN Reds) | +375 |
Tyler Stephenson (CIN Reds) | +400 |
Nathaniel Lowe (CIN Reds) | +400 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians) | +400 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
