The iconic Monza Circuit hosts round 13 of the 2026 Formula 1 season this weekend as the 22 drivers head to the Temple of Speed, and home hero Kimi Antonelli will have his work cut out if he is to land his first Italian Grand Prix victory.
The World Drivers’ Championship leader will start towards the back of the grid after Mercedes confirmed he would take a new power unit and a grid penalty, with the plentiful overtaking opportunities at Monza judged the most likely venue for a comeback drive.
That leaves Lando Norris, who has won the last two Grands Prix, as the pre-race favourite for the win for the first time this season, and the reigning world champion will be hoping to slash the gap to Antonelli.
The 20-year-old heads into the Italian Grand Prix 59 points ahead of teammate George Russell and Ferrari man Lewis Hamilton, while the in-form Norris is 83 points adrift of the leader.
Italian Grand Prix betting picks and predictions
Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium (-150)
Antonelli’s grid penalty opens the door for plenty of competition at the front and, while Ferrari have not fared particularly well in a straight line this season, their focus on Monza could lead them back to the podium for the first time since the Belgian Grand Prix.
The Prancing Horse regularly introduce big upgrades for their home Grand Prix, putting a lot of effort into the bespoke aerodynamic package that teams use around the high-speed circuit, and this is something that Leclerc has benefited from in the past.
The Monegasque, to the delight of the Tifosi, has led his Ferrari to home glory in 2019 and 2024, and he heads to the Temple of Speed in better form than teammate Hamilton.
He has finished ahead of Hamilton in three of the last four Grands Prix, including a race win in the British Grand Prix and second place in Belgium.
He finished second in the Dutch Sprint a couple of weeks ago and looks well placed to give the home crowd something to cheer about.
Max Verstappen to finish on the podium (+225)
Max Verstappen looked to be on the comeback trail before his early and uncharacteristic exit from the Dutch Grand Prix, but the four-time world champion does have reasons for optimism at Monza.
The Red Bull internal combustion engine remains the benchmark for performance at the FIA and that could be crucial at a track where drivers spend up to 80 per cent of the lap time at full throttle.
Despite his crash at his home Grand Prix, Verstappen has finished on the podium in three of the last five races and looked set to challenge at Silverstone before his retirement.
He has made Monza his own in recent years, winning three of the last four Italian Grands Prix, and he can put in a good showing on Sunday.
Liam Lawson to finish in the top 6 (+163)
Another driver who could take advantage of the Red Bull engine is Liam Lawson, although it is still unknown which car he will be piloting this weekend.
Isack Hadjar’s wrist injury saw Lawson promoted back to the Red Bull seat for the Dutch Grand Prix and it has been confirmed that Hadjar will remain sidelined for Monza.
This means Lawson is back in the Red Bull that he took a seventh-place finish in at Zandvoort and he is a good bet for a top six finish.
The New Zealander has finished sixth in two of the last seven races and has only finished outside the points once in his last eight outings.
This includes a couple of seventh-place finishes and, with engine power on his side, he can push on to match or better his best result of the season.
Italian Grand Prix odds
Lando Norris | +150 |
George Russell | +225 |
Charles Leclerc | +650 |
Lewis Hamilton | +650 |
Max Verstappen | +1200 |
Kimi Antonelli | +1400 |
Oscar Piastri | +1600 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
