An iconic National League Central rivalry takes center stage for a Memorial Day afternoon clash as the Chicago Cubs travel to PNC Park to battle the Pittsburgh Pirates.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET. Both teams are looking to assert themselves in a highly competitive divisional race as the calendar turns toward June.
The Cubs enter this holiday matchup desperately searching for answers, having hit a severe rough patch. Only a couple of weeks ago, Chicago owned the best record in MLB at 27-12. Since then, they have dropped 12 of their last 14 games, including a six-game home losing streak that slid their overall record to 29-24.
On the other side, the Pirates are a refreshing surprise at 27-26. Pittsburgh is playing highly competitive baseball, anchored in part by baseball’s top prospect, 20-year-old shortstop Konnor Griffin, who has injected life into the roster with a .266 average, a .713 OPS and a stellar 1.5 bWAR early in his campaign.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates betting picks and predictions
Chicago Cubs ML (-125)
While the Cubs have been mired in a miserable slump, scoring three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 14 games, Memorial Day represents the ultimate bounce-back spot for a roster that is simply too talented to keep losing. Chicago has historically dominated this head-to-head, going 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Pirates and 13-7 over the last 20 meetings.
The pitching matchup heavily uncovers a path to victory for the visitors. The Cubs will hand the ball to Ben Brown, who has transitioned seamlessly back into the starting rotation. Brown has been spectacular, pitching to a 2.09 ERA and an elite 0.98 WHIP with 40 strikeouts over 38.2 innings.
He has been particularly brilliant during afternoon games (1.64 ERA) and on the road (1.53 ERA), neutralizing both right-handed and left-handed hitters to an opponent OPS below .500. Armed with an elite ground-ball rate of 54.5%, Brown has the precise toolkit needed to keep Pittsburgh's hitters grounded.
Conversely, Pittsburgh counters with right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski (3.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). While he threw five shutout innings in St. Louis his last time out, Mlodzinski’s underlying metrics suggest heavy negative regression is on the horizon. He ranks in the bottom second percentile in hard-hit rate, the third percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 15th percentile in whiff rate.
Core pieces of the Cubs' lineup have historically handled him with ease: Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are both 5-for-9 against him, while Dansby Swanson is 4-for-8. Look for Chicago's bats to break out of their funk and secure a much-needed road victory.
Over 8.0 Total Runs (-110)
Even with Ben Brown throwing gems for Chicago, the environment is ripe for an offensive explosion at PNC Park. The Pirates have been absolute juggernauts when playing in front of their home fans, boasting the number-one home batting average in the Major Leagues (.274) and the number-two home OPS (.782). They also match up incredibly well against right-handed pitching, ranking fourth in the MLB with a .742 OPS against righties.
Mlodzinski is extremely vulnerable to left-handed bats (.327 average and .872 OPS allowed to lefties), to which the Cubs have plenty.
While the Cubs' offense has been cold, facing a pitcher with Mlodzinski's profile is the perfect remedy. Because Mlodzinski doesn't miss bats and sits in the ninth percentile in expected batting average (.285 xBA), Chicago's contact hitters will put balls in play early and often.
Furthermore, the Cubs enter this series heavily depleted in the starting pitching department, missing key arms like Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera and Cade Horton. This physical strain will inevitably filter down into the bullpen depth.
With Pittsburgh’s bullpen sitting at a middle-of-the-pack 4.13 ERA, both lineups should find plenty of traffic on the basepaths during this afternoon window.
Oneil Cruz To Hit A Home Run (+575)
If you are looking to back a single player to launch a ball into the seats this afternoon, Pittsburgh’s dynamic shortstop Oneil Cruz is the premier target. Cruz enters Monday's action leading the Pirates in RBIs and sitting second on the team with 11 home runs.
Cruz's Statcast profile is entirely elite. He possesses some of the most violent raw power in the sport, ranking in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (96 mph), 100th percentile in hard-hit rate (61.5%), 100th percentile in bat speed, and the 96th percentile in barrel rate (18.1%).
While Ben Brown has been excellent against the league as a whole, Cruz has been his distinct kryptonite. In a small sample size, Cruz has absolutely smoked Brown, collecting three hits and two extra-base hits in just four at-bats against him.
Cruz also elevates his game during day baseball, tracking a robust .276 average and .808 OPS under the sun. Even if Brown limits him early, Cruz will have golden opportunities against a fragile Cubs pitching staff later in the game.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates odds
Chicago Cubs | -125 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | +105 |
Run Line | CHI Cubs -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.0 |
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates player props
Player home run odds
Brandon Lowe (PIT Pirates) | +450 |
Michael Busch (CHI Cubs) | +500 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHI Cubs) | +550 |
Oneil Cruz (PIT Pirates) | +575 |
Bryan Reynolds (PIT Pirates) | +700 |
Michael Conforto (CHI Cubs) | +750 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
