The unspectacular AFC South is made up of a motley crew consisting of the Houston Texas, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.
Although there is no denying that there is – in some cases – plenty of talent on those rosters, none of those teams are reliable.
Jacksonville surprisingly went 13-4 in 2025 to win the division by a game over a 12-5 Houston squad.
Will it be another race between those two franchises this year, or can Indianapolis and Jacksonville break into the mix?
AFC South Division Winner Prediction
Houston Texans to win the AFC South (+125)
The Texans’ defense was absolutely unbelievable last season. They finished No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring (17.4 points per game allowed) and No. 3 in takeaways and No. 7 in sacks.
Houston is largely running it back with stars like Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. on that side of the ball.
Jadaveon Clowney may be well past his prime, but it does say something about this unit that the former No. 1 overall pick wanted to be a part of it rather than retire.
Clowney signed a one-year contract earlier this week.
The key in Houston is for the offense to be a capable supporting cast – something it was not able to do down the stretch of the 2025 regular season or in the playoffs.
Still, you have to think that CJ Stroud is capable of rebounding. Stroud was awesome as a rookie in 2023 and he is still just 24 years old.
It would help, of course, if pass-catchers like Nico Collins and Tank Dell could stay healthy - that has not been the case in recent seasons.
The Texans’ chances also have a lot to do with the competition level. Jacksonville overachieved last year, but it will be faced with a much tougher schedule in 2026 as a reigning division winner.
Indianapolis imploded down the stretch in 2025 and quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles’ injury.
Tennessee went 3-14 and does not figure to be much better this season.
AFC South best bets
Tennessee Titans Under 6.5 wins (-130)
The Titans continue to be in rebuilding mode – and it is a rebuilding that has been going at a snail’s pace.
This franchise has compiled a losing record in four consecutive seasons, with 7-10 being its best mark during this stretch of futility and Tennessee is coming off back-to-back 3-14 campaigns.
Are the Titans really going to double (more than double, in fact) their previous win total in their first year under head coach Robert Saleh?
In three full seasons and part of another with the Jets, Saleh never amassed a winning record.
Sure, that franchise is awful – but it’s not like he has a whole lot more to work with in Tennessee than he did in New York.
Even if rookie receiver Carnell Tate helps second-year QB Cam Ward take the next step in his development, it’s hard to see Tennessee winning more than six games.
Jacksonville Jaguars to miss the playoffs (-115)
In their first eight games of the season, the Jaguars have to go up against Denver (on the road), New England, Cincinnati (on the road), Philadelphia (London), Houston (London) and Baltimore (on the road).
They also have to visit Chicago, Houston and Dallas all in the month of December - good luck with that schedule!
The bottom line, though, is that Jacksonville simply may not be very good.
It ended the 2025 campaign on an eight-game winning streak, but only two of those victories came against opponents that finished the season with a winning record and it needed overtime go get past two terrible teams in Las Vegas and Arizona.
If Houston wins the AFC South, it won’t be easy for Jacksonville to snag a wild card given the overall strength of the conference – with the West potentially featuring three playoff teams and the East providing two.
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AFC South Division Winner odds
Houston Texans | +125 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +220 |
Indianapolis Colts | +360 |
Tennessee Titans | +800 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
