The New England Patriots ended the Buffalo Bills’ five-year dominance of the AFC East last year, winning the divisional title on their way to a Super Bowl defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.
The young team were way ahead of schedule last year but Mike Vrabel’s men were the beneficiaries of a very straightforward run and much tougher tests await this year.
The Bills lost in the Divisional Round to the Denver Broncos and Sean McDermott has lost his job as a result, with Joe Brady taking over as head coach. Elsewhere in the division, the New York Jets have been reunited with Geno Smith while there has been a full-scale rebuild at the Miami Dolphins.
Here we pick out the best bets from the AFC East for the upcoming season.
AFC East Division Winner betting picks and predictions
Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots straight forecast (+130)
The Buffalo Bills’ 12-5 regular season record last year would have been good enough to win five of the other seven divisions in the NFL but they were pipped to the AFC East title by the New England Patriots, who finished 14-3.
The Pats had their easiest schedule since 2000 though and face a much tougher time of things this season. That starts with a Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks which could set the tone for a trickier 2026.
A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs have arrived but there are still questions about an offensive line which was badly exposed in the Super Bowl.
K'Lavon Chaisson’s departure also significantly weakens their edge-rushing threat and they may find themselves playing second fiddle to the Buffalo Bills this year.
The Bills have been the best team in the NFL not to win a Super Bowl over the last six years and their playoff heartache continued last season with a loss to the Denver Broncos which saw Sean McDermott depart.
New head coach Joe Brady was promoted from Offensive Coordinator so there should be a smooth transition and the arrival of D.J. Moore is a big upgrade in the receiving corps.
James Cook led the league in rushing last year and with Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills have the most dynamic playmaker in the league.
New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will have to improve things on defense but C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Lloyd Cushenberry and Dee Alford should help.
The New York Jets are still rebuilding and despite the arrival of Geno Smith, and they still look a way behind the leading two contenders in this division.
The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are embarking on a rebuild of their own and look unlikely to play any part in the AFC East division race.
In what should be a straight shootout between the Bills and the Pats, Buffalo are fancied to return as division winners, with New England second.
Miami Dolphins under 4.5 regular season wins (-150)
The Miami Dolphins finished 7-10 in 2025 but have completely torn up their squad and started afresh, with Mike McDaniel exiting as head coach, along with a number of their biggest stars.
Tua Tagovailoa is out at quarterback while Tyreek Hill, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jaylen Waddle have also gone.
Jon-Eric Sullivan is the new general manager, replacing Chris Grier, and Jeff Hafley is their new head coach.
They have placed their faith in Malik Willis at quarterback but he has only six career starts to his name and may struggle on a team which now looks short of talent, particularly at receiver.
The Dolphins ranked 27th in pass yards allowed per play last year and their defense has not improved much. As the Jets have shown in recent years, rebuilds can be long and painful and this looks set to be one of those.
Take the under for Dolphins regular season wins at 4.5.
AFC East Division Winner odds
Buffalo Bills | -140 |
New England Patriots | +125 |
New York Jets | +1800 |
Miami Dolphins | +3300 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
