What if the US presidential election is a tie?

The US presidential election is almost upon us and the race to the White House couldn't be much closer.

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have led in polls and been favourites according to the betting markets, and the 2024 race still looks too close to call.

The odds suggest the Democrats will win the popular vote, as they have in all bar one of the last eight elections, but the president will be decided by who wins the most Electoral College votes.

Most states will almost certainly go one way or the other; for example, California and New York will vote Democrat, counting for 82 Electoral College votes, while Texas and Florida will likely vote Republican, counting for 70 Electoral College votes. The election will be decided in seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Assuming the other 43 states vote as expected, it will leave the Democrats on 226 votes to the Republicans' 219, with 93 up for grabs.

It's extremely unlikely the election will result in a tie due to the combinations required - the Republicans would need to win Pennsylvania but lose Arizona and one of North Carolina and Georgia - but it's not impossible. So what happens then?

• US Presidential Election | Dates, paths to victory and Electoral College explained

What happens if the US presidential election is a tie?

Should both parties receive exactly 269 Electoral College votes, the House of Representatives would decide the next president, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win.

Interestingly, Senators would then elect the vice president, with each Senator having a vote, meaning you could potentially have Donald Trump and Tim Walz, or Kamala Harris and JD Vance working together.

Should the House of Representatives fail to elect a president before the new term starts on 20th January 2025, the vice president becomes acting president until the House breaks the deadlock.

What needs to happen for the US presidential election to be a tie?

Barring any big surprises, we know how 43 states will vote and the Electoral College votes they carry. A total of 269 Electoral College votes are required for a tie, and there are three potential combinations for that to happen:

Combination 1:
Republicans: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6)
Democrats: Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11)

Combination 2:
Republicans: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15)
Democrats: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6)

Combination 3:
Republicans: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), Michigan (15)
Democrats: North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6)

Liam Williams

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