Valero Texas Open Power Rankings

The PGA Tour’s last stop before the US Masters is upon us for the Valero Texas Open.

A strong field is heading to TPC San Antonio, with Tommy Fleetwood heading the market, in front of the likes of Robert MacIntyre, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth.

The PGA Tour's final pre-Augusta stops takes place at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, as the name suggests, is characterised by its trees which can cause problems for wayward drivers.

The undulating fairways, frequently windy conditions and requirement to pull driver just about everywhere makes San Antonio one of the most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour.

Generally, though, despite its length and tight fairways, San Antonio doesn’t seem to particularly favour long nor straight hitters.

The lengthy par-5s mean that nearly one in five approach shots will be from 250+ yards, which in turn means players need to be skilled with wedges either for layups or missed greens.

While last year’s running was devoid of drama due to Brian Harman’s runaway victory, the final two holes can provide plenty of tension, and the combined scores on the drivable 17th and the lengthy par-5 18th (which involves the crossing of a stream) can be anywhere between six and 13.

The wind often dictates how difficult the course plays, though San Antonio has played over par in seven of the last 10 renewals, with Harman’s nine-under-par victory last year enough to win by three.

Unsurprisingly, Texans have a strong record in the event, though none have won since Jordan Spieth in 2021. Perhaps also unsurprisingly given the uneven terrain and breezy conditions, Open winners have fared well at this event, with Harman, Spieth, Ben Curtis, Zach Johnson and Justin Leonard winning, while Adam Scott, who ought to have won the 2012 Open, has also been victorious here.

The greens are Bermuda overseeded with Poa trivialis at this time of year, and generally run a little slower than PGA Tour average depending on the conditions, but players don’t need to be strong putters at San Antonio; avoid trouble off the tee, find as many greens as you can and get up and down from the ones you do miss and you won’t be far off contention.

With that in mind, take a look at our Power Rankings for this week’s Valero Texas Open.

5 - Robert MacIntyre

Although he’s not won The Open, Robert MacIntyre has shown plenty of links prowess, winning the Scottish Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Both require the ability to manage windy conditions and often require creativity around the greens, two of MacIntyre’s biggest strengths.

Wind often plays a part at TPC Sawgrass and Waialae, and both have been sites of the Scot’s two best finishes this season (fourth and T4 respectively).

MacIntyre is a rock-solid driver, rarely losing out to the field in terms of distance or accuracy, but if there is a concern, it’s that the 29-year-old has gained strokes on approach in just one of his last five starts, though that was last time out at the Players.

MacIntyre’s putter has done a lot of the heavy lifting of late, and he’ll need to be sharper through the bag to contend this week.

4 - Collin Morikawa

In theory, fewer courses should suit Collin Morikawa better than TPC San Antonio. While length is an advantage just about everywhere, a lack of it can be compensated for here as well as anywhere else. Find fairways and you’ll have a prime opportunity to find greens (though Morikawa has tacked on distance this year).

Counting against Morikawa is that his only appearance here was a T75 back in 2024, though that did come on the back of some poor form.

Morikawa’s iron play has sharpened up significantly in recent weeks, and while fans were hugely disappointed not to see him play at Sawgrass, no one will have been more frustrated than Morikawa himself.

Morikawa’s putting remains the weakest part of the game, but as previous winners have shown, it’s the least important facet at TPC San Antonio. With his ball striking looking in excellent nick (ranking first in the field across the last eight events for SG: APP and SG: T2G as per Golf Betting System), the 29-year-old could become the fifth players in the last 20 years to complete the Open Championship/Texas Open double.

3 - Ludvig Aberg

Nothing should come as a surprise at TPC Sawgrass, but Ludvig Aberg going slice/hook into the water on back-to-back holes when seemingly in total control of the tournament was eye-opening.

Two poor shots saw the previously unflappable Swede card a 76 and finish four back of Cameron Young. But the takeaway from the week should perhaps have been how good Aberg was, with his scintillating 63 on Friday the highlight.

It followed a T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational the week before where he ranked third for SG: APP. His driving remains impeccable, his iron play is trending upwards, his putting is strong and his short game remains somewhat underrated.

Aberg played the Valero Texas Open back in 2022 while still in college, and though he missed the cut then, he was a solid T14 when returning two years later.

2 - Jordan Spieth

Aside from next week’s event, the Valero Texas Open must rank up there with Jordan Spieth’s favourites tournaments. Even when he’s not playing well he’s found a way around TPC San Antonio.

Since 2014, Spieth has finished 10th, 2nd, T30, 1st, T35, T10, T12 at the Oaks Course, but aside from his impressive course history, the Texan is playing some really nice golf.

Spieth has averaged 1.23 SG:APP across his last three starts at the Arnold Palmer, the Players and the Valspar, and has gained strokes in 15 of his last 16 rounds.

The 2021 Valero Texas Open champion is rounding into form at the right time, all with the Masters right around the corner…

1 - Tommy Fleetwood

While distance used to be of more importance at San Antonio, it’s not as crucial as it once was. Nevertheless, Tommy Fleetwood, always straighter than he was long, has added speed in the off-season and has nothing to fear at the Oaks Course.

His accuracy with driver should see him find more fairways than most, which in turn should create more scoring opportunities.

A superb wind player, Fleetwood will have no issues in the breezy Texas conditions, while his elite short game could help him separate from the pack.

The Englishman has averaged almost exactly 1.0 SG:ARG on each of his last four starts, while only a cold putter let him down at TPC Sawgrass.

A T7 here on debut in 2024, Fleetwood has every chance of improving on that this time around.