Aryna Sabalenka has dominated hard-court Grand Slam tennis in recent seasons, but the big-hitting Belarusian has questions to answer as she attempts to defend the US Open Women's title that she won in both 2024 and 2025.
The 28-year-old has not lifted a trophy since completing the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami and her poor form, coupled with the recent resurgences of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka, makes for an intriguing punting puzzle at New York's Flushing Meadows.
Racing Post Sport's Joe Champion is keen to take on the US Open women's favourite and has three tips for the final Grand Slam of the season.
US Open Women's Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Coco Gauff @ 5/1
Dark Horse Tip: Jessica Pegula @ 11/1
Expert Tip: Diana Shnaider to win 1st Quarter @ 20/1
US Open Women's Format
The US Open Women's tournament is a knockout competition featuring a 128-player draw, which means that the winner will, barring any walkovers, have to successfully negotiate seven matches to win the title.
There are 32 seeded players who cannot meet each other until the third round and the top eight seeds are all drawn in separate sections and cannot meet until the round of 16.
First-Round Matches to Watch
Venus Williams v Sofia Kenin
Amanda Anisimova v Ashlyn Krueger
Sloane Stephens v Clara Tauson
Madison Keys v Alina Korneeva
The most eye-catching first-round matches involve Americans and none leaps off the page more than Venus Williams' clash with Sofia Kenin.
This may well be Williams' last US Open appearance and a meeting with Kenin, who is still capable despite the extensive injuries she has battled since winning the 2020 Australian Open, is likely to prove beyond her.
Last year's runner-up Amanda Anisimova faces a tough examination against fellow American Ashlyn Krueger, while 2017 champion Sloane Stephens and the woman she beat in that year's final - Madison Keys - also look vulnerable against Clara Tauson and Alina Korneeva.
US Open Women's Favourites
(Odds will display when the market is available).
Sabalenka has reached the last three US Open finals, winning the last two and her New York pedigree means that she retains her status as the women's favourite, although below-par efforts in both Canada and Cincinnati have seen her eased from 9/4 at the start of the month to 10/3.
Swiatek made a statement when winning in Toronto and is next in at 9/2, while Cincinnati champion Gauff is a 5/1 chance.
Two-time Flushing Meadows winner Osaka is a 10/1 shot ahead of consistent New Yorker Jessica Pegula at 11/1. Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina has been pushed out to 14/1 amid serious fitness concerns.
Data-Led US Open Women's Predictions & Analytics
Aryna Sabalenka has a 34-6 (85%) US Open main-draw record - her best in the four Grand Slams
Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina are tied for the most WTA Tour hard-court wins this season (29-7 records or 81%)
At 11-2 (85%), Mirra Andreeva holds the best Grand Slam win-loss record on the WTA Tour this season
Pegula has been the best returner in WTA Grand Slams this season, breaking serve 51.4% of the time
US Open Women's Outright Prediction
While her awesome hard-court record suggests she's still the one to beat, Sabalenka's performances in the lead-up to the US Open have to be a concern for those thinking of taking short odds about the tournament favourite.
The draw has been kind - she is on the opposite half to six of her seven main rivals in the betting market, but she hasn't won a title in more than five months and looks worth taking on with Gauff.
Gauff's Grand Slam breakthrough came in the 2023 US Open and it was assumed that she would dominate for years to come.
That hasn't quite turned out to be the case but, at 22, time is on her side and her performances in North America this summer - a semi-final run in Toronto and a Cincinnati title - mark her out as a leading contender.
The Floridian was miles short of her best when battling to the fourth round at Flushing Meadows last year, but she has spent 12 months ironing out the flaws in her serve and forehand with biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan, and that work appears to finally be coming to fruition.
One of the WTA Tour's best athletes, Gauff is fully equipped both physically and mentally to win seven matches in New York.
Dark Horses to Watch
Given she's still waiting for a Grand Slam breakthrough, Pegula just about fits in the 'dark horse' bracket and the New Yorker could realise a lifetime ambition by claiming a first top-level title at Flushing Meadows.
Pegula has always been a consistent operator and incremental improvements have helped her become a regular contender at the sharp end of the hard-court Grand Slams with runs to the final and semi-final over the last two years in New York followed by a semi-final run at the Australian Open in January.
She holds the best win-loss record on the WTA Tour this season at 45-12, reaching four finals including in Washington and Cincinnati this summer.
Expert Tip
Sabalenka is the hot favourite in the first quarter, but it could be worth opposing her in a section that also features Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova, Barbora Krejcikova and Diana Shnaider.
Kostyuk and Wimbledon champion Noskova are most likely to upset the favourite, but Shnaider reached the semi-finals in Washington, beat Pegula on the way to the last eight in Toronto, and won twice in Cincinnati before finding Rybakina too strong.
The 22-year-old was a French Open semi-finalist earlier in the year and is capable of a bold New York bid.
Who Wins the US Open Women's title?
The US Open women's tournament is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in recent seasons and, while the outcome might well revolve around which version of Sabalenka shows up in New York, others will have designs on ending her spell as the queen of Flushing Meadows.
Swiatek and Gauff, the form horses coming into the tournament after claiming the WTA 1000 lead-in events, look most likely to lower her colours, although it would be wrong to write off consistent Pegula, while Osaka's firepower makes her an obvious danger.
With Rybakina hobbled by an ankle problem, it's Gauff who gets the vote.
The American was superb in Cincinnati. She won the US Open three years ago and, having worked hard to improve her weaknesses, she is primed for a bold title bid.
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
