Tommy Paul and Flavio Cobolli should both see this as an excellent opportunity to challenge for Masters 1000 silverware and home-court advantage could be a big benefit for the American player.
With big two Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz both missing through injury, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic were the two leading lights in the tournament.
However, Djokovic suffered a shock second-round exit to Argentina's Thiago Agustin Tirante while Paul dumped out top seed Zverev in the last 16, coming from a set down to prevail.
That has blown the tournament wide open and Cobolli will also be feeling pretty happy with himself after his come-from-behind win against the highly-touted Rafael Jodar in the last round.
Cobolli, seeded seventh in Cincinnati, is now the second highest-ranked player left in the event at the quarter-final stage but it is Paul with the hard-court expertise.
Cobolli was runner-up at the French Open earlier in the campaign but the Italian is very much at his best on that slower terrain, whereas Paul is a former Australian Open semi-finalist and thrives on quicker conditions.
Tommy Paul v Flavio Cobolli Tips Summary
Best Bet - Tommy Paul to win & over 22.5 games @ 15/8
Alternative Bet - Tommy Paul to win 2-1 @ 5/2
Bet Builder - Tommy Paul to win, over 4.5 breaks of serve in the match & 10+ aces in the match @ 10/3
Tommy Paul v Flavio Cobolli Prediction
Best Bet: Tommy Paul to win & over 22.5 games @ 15/8
These two met in Cincinnati in 2024, with Cobolli coming out on top 6-2 4-6 7-5 in a marathon match, but Paul may be able to exact his revenge two years on.
Paul has been blighted by inconsistencies in recent seasons but these are his conditions and he is bidding to make his fifth Masters 1000 semi-final.
A three-set win over top seed Zverev in the last round should have restored plenty of belief for Paul, who is an 11-time finalist on the ATP Tour and a former Australian Open semi-finalist.
Cobolli is seen to best effect on a slower surface and under these conditions it is Paul who is most likely to deliver.
Paul served impeccably in victory over Zverev, being broken only twice by the German world number three, and he can come through another epic battle.
Alternative Bet: Tommy Paul to win 2-1 @ 5/2
Paul needed a deciding set to win all three of his Cincinnati clashes against Zverev, Daniel Vallejo and Hubert Hurkacz and this could be another three-set victory for the American.
Cobolli has also come through a trio of three-set matches, outlasting Miomir Kecmanovic, Alexander Blockx and Jodar, but his look may have run out.
The only previous encounter between this pair went the distance and while they may bring out the best in one another again, Paul has the strongest credentials.
Tommy Paul v Flavio Cobolli Bet Builder Tip
Tommy Paul to win
Over 4.5 breaks of serve in the match
10+ aces in the match
Pays 10/3
Under these conditions and armed with the support of a passionate home crowd, Paul should be able to deliver the goods. His fourth-round victory over Zverev is the standout piece of form.
However, there could be plenty of twists and turns and breaks of serve should be expected. There were 10 breaks of serve when these met in Cincinnati two seasons ago.
There were 14 aces in that three-set won by Cobolli in 2024 and Paul’s three tournament wins have featured ace totals of 20, 14 and 23.
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Key Match Stats
All three of Paul’s Cincinnati wins ended 2-1
Cobolli has needed a deciding set in his three tournament wins
The only previous meeting between this pair went to a deciding set
Paul has won 12 of his last 17 hard-court matches
Cobolli had lost three hard-court matches in a row before his run in Cincinnati
When these two clashed in Cincinnati two years ago there were 10 breaks of serve
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
