Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien do battle for a place in the fourth round of the US Open on Saturday on Louis Armstrong Stadium.
This night session match-up pits two of the most exciting young players in men’s tennis against one another for the first time since their Next Gen ATP Finals clash in Jeddah two years ago.
American rising star Tien came through in five sets that day and he will start as the favourite in New York after two impressive straight-seta wins over Nuno Borges and Gael Monfils in the opening week of the US Open.
Mensik made heavier weather of his second-round win over Jurij Rodionov, which came two days after his 21st birthday, as he served six double faults and made only 57% of his first serves against the Austrian.
The Czech star's big serve remains his greatest weapon, but his ability to chase Tien's flat forehand could be the key to this clash.
And with third seed Felix Augier-Aliassime having already been knocked out of their section of the draw, a path to the quarter-finals has opened up for the winner of this clash.
Jakub Mensik v Learner Tien Tips Summary
Best Bet - Learner Tien to win 3-2 @ 5/1
Alternative Bet - Over 38.5 total games @ 5/6
Bet Builder - Learner Tien to win, Jaukb Mensik 15+ aces & Jakub Mensik to win 1st service game to 0 or 15 @ 5/1
Jakub Mensik v Learner Tien Prediction
Best Bet: Learner Tien to win 3-2 @ 5/1
This is one of the most evenly matched contests of the round, with the two young stars only separated by a few ranking spots.
Their recent form is identical, both players having won seven of their last nine matches and stylistically they match up in a way that should produce an absorbing contest.
Mensik must endeavour to keep the points short to have the best chance of success while Tien will hope to hang in there and utilise his superior fitness levels later.
The American has been the more physically resilient of the two through the first two rounds.
He saved all eight break points he faced against Monfils and showed the same calm, controlled problem‑solving that carried him to the Geneva title and his first Masters 1000 semi-final in Montreal earlier this summer.
His return game has also been sharper over the last six months, consistently winning a higher share of second‑serve points than Mensik. That matters in a match where breaks of serve will be rare and every long rally will carry weight.
Mensik won 85% of first‑serve points in his second-round match and came up with enough big ones when it mattered, so he should put himself in positions to win sets too.
But Tien's ability to absorb pace, extend rallies and stay composed in late‑set pressure moments gives him a slight edge.
The American will also benefit from a supportive home crowd and he feels "due" for a big result at a hard‑court Slam.
Alternative Bet: Over 38.5 total games @ 5/6
If you prefer not to pick a winner, the over 38.5 games market is extremely appealing.
This match screams five sets based on several factors, not least their only previous meeting.
That was in the Next Gen Finals so it required only four games to win a set, but the eventual 4-3 4-3 2-4 2-4 4-3 outcome in favour of Tien tells a story of how close it was.
Mensik's booming serve ensures he holds frequently, but Tien's return game means he rarely gets blown out.
Night matches on Armstrong often produce long, dramatic battles too, and, with both players at the peak of their physical profiles, fans should expect extended rallies and tight sets.
Jakub Mensik v Learner Tien Bet Builder
Learner Tien to win
Jakub Mensik 15+ Aces
Jaukb Mensik to win 1st service game to 0 or 15
Pays 5/1
Tien's fitness and consistency should see him prevail against the more mercurial Mensik.
The Czech's serve is his biggest weapon and he will lean on his delivery in the key moments.
He averages over 11 aces per match and in high‑pressure night matches he often hits even higher numbers.
Expect the 17th seed to come out firing and he should be able to complete a comfortable hold in his first service game before Tien gets a good read on his action.
Key Match Stats
Jakub Mensik is 23‑10 on hard courts this year, Learner Tien is 18‑9 on hard courts
Both players are 7‑2 in their last nine matches
Tien saved all eight break points he faced against Monfils
Mensik made his first Grand Slam semi earlier this season at the French Open
Tien is 4-0 in career five-set matches, Mensik is 5-6
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
