Thursday is women’s semi-final day at Roland Garros and after a tournament littered with shocks in both singles events, two surprise names will face off for a place in Saturday’s showpiece.
Maja Chwalinska became only the second female qualifier ever to reach the last four at the French Open when she overcame 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets on Tuesday.
The unheralded Pole has now beaten three top-50 players this fortnight - Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari and Kalinskaya - despite never having beaten one before her fairytale run in Paris.
Chwalinska’s story is even more remarkable considering her journey from almost rock bottom back to the top of the sport. The 24-year-old stepped away from tennis in 2021 due to depression, rebuilt her game on the ITF circuit, and now finds herself one match from a Grand Slam final.
This semi‑final also marks the first Roland Garros last‑four meeting between two left‑handers in the Open Era.
Diana Shnaider had not created much of a stir, despite reaching the last eight of a Grand Slam for the first time, until her stunning upset of top seed Aryna Sabalenka.
From 6‑3, 4‑1 down, the 22‑year‑old reeled off 12 of the next 13 games, including the last 10 in a row as she handled the blustery conditions far better than the world number one, who finished with 57 unforced errors.
Both players are now in uncharted territory with a chance of making tennis history later this week.
Diana Shnaider v Maja Chwalinska Tips Summary
Best Bet - Diana Shnaider -2.5 Match handicap @ 8/11
Alternative Bet - Under 21.5 Total games @ 5/6
Bet Builder - Shnaider to win 2-0, Chwalinska Over 0.5 Aces & Shnaider to win Set 1 6-3 or 6-4 @ 9/1
Diana Shnaider v Maja Chwalinska Prediction
Best Bet: Diana Shnaider -2.5 Match handicap @ 8/11
Chwalinska has been the Cinderella story of the tournament, but Shnaider’s ceiling is higher and her win over Sabalenka proved she can raise her level under extreme pressure.
Expect Chwalinska to trouble her early with variety and changes of pace. But over the course of a long match, Shnaider’s heavier hitting and superior physicality should tilt the balance.
These two players have met only once before, but it was the Russian who ran out a straight-sets winner on clay four years ago, 6-4,6-4.
She has a tremendous record against fellow lefties, having beaten Leylah Fernandez twice already this year and leading the next highest-ranked left-hander, Sara Bejlek, 2-0 in their head-to-heads.
And while Chwalinska has performed well above expectations this fortnight to beat fancied players like Mertens and Sakkari, neither of those have any Grand Slam pedigree and the Greek player doesn’t even have a winning record on clay this year.
Shnaider has the raw power to dominate on any surface with her lefty forehand capable of taking over matches, even if her high‑risk style also produces streaky patches.
That happened against Sabalenka as she went from struggling to unstoppable in minutes. Her win over the top seed cannot be dismissed as a fluke, though, and she looks poised to back it up with a comfortable victory over the qualifier.
Alternative Bet: Under 21.5 Total games @ 5/6
Chwalinska simply has to start the match well if she is to have any chance of continuing her dream run.
Shnaider has a big game and showed her adaptability against Sabalenka when it seemed as if she was heading for the Roland Garros exit.
That win will have done wonders for her confidence and she has the added spur now of eyeing a potential Grand Slam final clash against her doubles partner Mirra Andreeva, who faces Marta Kostyuk in the other semi.
When the Russian gets to grips with an opponent, she can quickly go for the jugular, which is demonstrated by the second/deciding set scores across her five wins in Paris this fortnight - 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0 and 6-0.
That suggests this match could finish in a hurry once she gets Chwalinska’s measure.
Diana Shnaider v Maja Chwalinska Bet Builder
Shnaider to win 2-0
Chwalinska Over 0.5 Aces
Shnaider to win Set 1 6-3 or 6-4
Pays 9/1
Shnaider won their previous meeting in straight sets and has a superb record against fellow left handers, so take the Russian to win in two.
She may take a few games to get into her stride again, but backing the higher-ranked player to edge the opening set either 6-3 or 6-4 makes sense.
Chwalinska doesn’t hit many aces, usually preferring to hit safe spots, but she did manage three in her third-round win over Sakkari after going a set down and may be forced to take some risks again on her serve in this semi.
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Key Match Stats
Chwalinska is only the second Roland Garros qualifier ever to reach the semi‑finals.
Shnaider has won 12 of her last 14 clay‑court matches.
Chwalinska has beaten three Top 50 players this fortnight.
Shnaider won 12 of the last 13 games in her quarter-final against Sabalenka.
Chwalinska served three aces in her third-round win over Sakkari.
Shnaider is 2-0 vs fellow left-handers this year.
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
