Fans at the Cincinnati Open are in for a treat as they will be celebrating a home winner regardless after Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula successfully came through their semi-finals to set up the first all-American title match since 1970.
There has been limited home success since Rosemary Casals lifted the trophy 56 years ago, with only six US winners since, although one of those is in action on Sunday night as Gauff was the 2023 champion after downing Karolina Muchova 6-3 6-4 in the final.
Pegula has previously gone close as she reached this stage the following year, but found Aryna Sabalenka a little too strong when going down 6-3 7-5.
Coco Gauff v Jessica Pegula Tips Summary
Best Bet - Coco Gauff -2.5 games @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - Total games 2-way - Over 21.5 @ 4/5
Bet Builder - Total Sets - 3, 1st set: Over 8.5 games, 1st break of serve - Coco Gauff @ 13/2
Coco Gauff v Jessica Pegula Prediction
Best Bet: Coco Gauff -2.5 games @ 5/6
These two players have enjoyed contrasting runs to the final with Pegula having had to come through three tough three-set battles against top-15 opponents to reach the showpiece, having started the tournament with two relatively comfortable straight-set victories.
Gauff's path has been the polar opposite as she lost her first set in Cincinnati 6-2 to Liudmila Samsonova before turning that opener around in her only three-set match.
Tehn, while she needed a tie-break in her second-round match against Ann Li, that was the first of four two-set wins, none of which have been close.
Her toughest opponent so far, 10th seed Marta Kostyuk, was dispatched 6-2 6-2 in the quarter-finals and, while Sara Bejlek knocked out four seeds - Barbora Krejcikova, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys - on her way to a surprise semi-final, Gauff dismissed her with ease in a 6-4 6-1 win.
Gauff should not only be full of confidence, but she will be the fresher of the two and has the momentum in the head-to-head match-ups to chalk up another win over her compatriot.
Pegula leads the head-to-head series overall 5-4 but her younger rival has actually won three of the last four meetings, which includes their only clash in a final when Gauff triumphed 6-4 7-5 to claim the Wuhan title in 2025, as well as their only meeting this year in a quarter-final win at Wimbledon.
All three of those wins have covered 2.5 games, a feat Gauff can repeat on Sunday as she looks to win her second Cincinnati Open title and first of 2026.
Alternative Bet: Total games 2-way - Over 21.5 @ 4/5
While Gauff's path to the final has been straightforward, a match against Pegula seems unlikely to be so as the 32-year-old has showcased her resilience and fighting qualities in abundance already in Cincinnati.
Pegula has needed three sets to win her last three matches and was a break down in the deciding set against Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals but rallied to win 7-5 4-6 6-4, and she is unlikely to be beaten easily.
Five of the last seven meetings between these two have passed this game line, with Gauff needing three sets to win at Wimbledon earlier this year, while the one final they have contested saw the younger player win 6-4 7-5.
Given the form of both players as well as the fact Gauff is chasing a first title of 2026, this is set to be a tight closely-fought contest, which may even go the distance, irrespective of the outcome.
Coco Gauff v Jessica Pegula Bet Builder Tips
- Total Sets - 3
- 1st Set: Over 8.5 games
- 1st Break of Serve - Coco GauffPays 13/2
Gauff has been in scintillating form but now runs into her toughest opponent and recent battles point to this match going to a third set.
Pegula beaten three top-15 opponents in a deciding set so is playing well enough to at least take one off her younger rival, with the two most recent head-to-heads won after three sets, including the only meeting this year and the last clash on hard courts, with one win apiece.
On a similar theme, neither looks likely to blast out of the traps and rip through the opening set so with seven of the last eight first sets played between the two needing at least nine games, a similar result is expected.
And given how the tournament has panned out, backing Gauff to secure the first break of serve looks worth considering.
The outcome of this match may well hinge on the 22-year-old's own serve which can at times be erratic but Pegula has been under pressure throughout the tournament.
The older American was broken six times against Swiatek in the semi-finals to make it 20 breaks of serve suffered to this point, and Gauff will be quick to turn the screw as she chases her first title of the year.
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Key Match Stats
- Jessica Pegula has the advantage in the head-to-head record with five wins to four
- Coco Gauff has won three of the last four meetings, though, including their only meeting in 2026
- The 22-year-old has won the only previous meeting in a final when victorious in Wuhan in 2025, her last title success
- Gauff has fired 25 aces in the tournament - compared with Pegula's 18 - but only three in her last two matches
- Pegula has made 10 double faults, while Gauff has made 22, only five of which have come in her last two matches
- Gauff has saved 16 of 24 break points faced, while Pegula has saved 22 of 42
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
