Aryna Sabalenka is bidding to make her fourth straight US Open final but should know that there is nothing easy about a semi-final showdown with home favourite Jessica Pegula.
Sabalenka was runner-up to Coco Gauff at the 2023 US Open, but went one better in the next two years, taking the title in 2024 with a 7-5 7-5 victory over Pegula in the final.
The top seed defeated Pegula again on her way to last year's title but was made to work much harder in that last-four rumble, coming from a set down to deny the American.
Sabalenka has reached the last seven hard-court Grand Slam finals to show that on her day she is a class above the rest under these quicker conditions.
But Pegula should have learned plenty from last season's semi-final showdown with Sabalenka and, now 32, will be desperate to secure her first piece of Grand Slam silverware.
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula Tips Summary
Best Bet - Total sets - 3 @ 11/10
Alternative Bet - Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-1 @ 5/2
Bet Builder - Over 22.5 games, Aryna Sabalenka most aces & 10+ match double faults @ 7/1
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula Prediction
Best Bet: Match sets - 3 @ 11/10
Pegula has been beaten by Sabalenka in the last two seasons of the US Open but she was far from disgraced in the semi-final 12 months ago, taking the first set before falling to a 6-4 3-6 4-6 defeat.
However, it showed that she is primed to capitalise if the world number one underperforms and Sabalenka may have been operating at a far higher level a year ago.
The Belarusian has not claimed silverware since winning in Miami in March and she looked down and out in her quarter-final clash with Linda Noskova, who led 4-2 in the deciding set.
That suggests that this may not be one-way traffic and Pegula, armed with home support, can push the defending champion all the way.
The last four meetings between this pair have gone to a deciding set and no WTA player has recorded more three-set wins (90) since the start of the decade than Pegula, showing that she is a true warrior.
Alternative Bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-1 @ 5/2
There were concerns surrounding the form of Sabalenka coming into the US Open and many were doubting whether she was playing well enough to secure a third straight title in New York.
However, as she so often does, Sabalenka has risen to the occasion and while she may not be at the peak of her powers, she knows how to win.
There is a worry that Pegula may lack the all-round game and belief needed to get over the line in a Grand Slam and the sheer power of the Belarusian is a huge advantage.
Just four defeats in her last 23 outings shows that Pegula is a model of consistency and it is hard to see her level dipping.
But Sabalenka lost only three of her 52 matches in hard-court majors since 2023 and that shows the size of the task facing her last-four foe.
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula Bet Builder Tip
Over 22.5 games
Aryna Sabalenka most aces
10+ match double faults
Pays 7/1
The last four rivalries between this pair, including in the semi-final of last year's US Open, have gone to a deciding set and another lengthy battle could be in store.
Sabalenka will look to utilise her power and, having had 12 aces in her quarter-final win over Noskova, should dominate in that department.
But this is a high-pressure situation and the desperation to hold can lead to a high number of double faults.
Sabalenka can have issues on second serve and Pegula had eight double faults of her own in her last-eight success over Emma Navarro.
Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.
Key Match Stats
Aryna Sabalenka lost only three of her 52 matches in hard-court majors since 2023
Sabalenka has reached the last seven hard-court Grand Slam finals
The top seed is chasing a third straight US Open title
Jessica Pegula has lost only one of her last 11 matches
The last four meetings between these two players have gone to a deciding set
Five of Pegula's last nine matches have gone the distance
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
