None of the top five seeds in the ATP Cincinnati Open even made it as far as the quarter-finals and with seventh seed Flavio Cobolli going out in the semi-finals, 17th seed Frances Tiafoe now faces 21st seed Arthur Fils in the decisive match.
Fils should be full of confidence after recording some fantastic results this week and it's no surprise to see him made favourite to beat the higher-ranked Tiafoe at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio.
Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe Tips Summary
Best Bet - Arthur Fils to win 2-0 @ 11/10
Alternative Bet - Arthur Fils to win first set 6-4 @ 7/1
Bet Builder - Under 22.5 total games, Under 0.5 tiebreaks, Arthur Fils over 8.5 aces @ 5/1
Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe Prediction
Best Bet: Arthur Fils to win 2-0 @ 11/10
The ATP Tour will have a new name on its list of Masters 1000 series winners after either Fils or Tiafoe secures the most important success of their careers in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Tiafoe has made the semi-finals of the US Open in two of the last four seasons, but three of his four career tournament wins have come at ATP 250 level, with his victory in this year's Halle Open on grass the only time he has triumphed in an ATP 500 event.
Fils is six years younger than his opponent at just 22 but he already has as many tournament wins as Tiafoe and three of his four successes have come at ATP 500 level, including the 2024 Japan Open on a hard court.
His first final this season was an understandable defeat to the mighty Carlos Alcaraz in the Qatar Open, but he went on to enjoy a clay-court success over Andrey Rublev in Barcelona.
The players have met only once before, but Fils took that 7-6 5-7 6-2 in similar conditions to today's match on a hard court in Miami last season, so he should not be daunted by taking on the American.
Fils is a tremendous athlete with a ferocious forehand and he has been in imperious form this week, dropping just one set in his five matches, and that was back in the third round when he lost a tiebreak 9-7 in the second set of his win over ninth seed Jiri Lehecka.
Fils claimed an even bigger scalp in the next round as he defeated fifth seed Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-4 and he dispatched another top-10 player in his semi-final, beating seventh seed Flavio Cobolli by the same score.
Tiafoe was taken to three sets by fellow American Learner Tien in the third round before recording an impressive 6-3 6-4 success over second seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.
He followed that with straight-sets wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Brandon Nakashima, but Fils looks red-hot at the moment and can seal the title in straight sets.
Alternative Bet: Arthur Fils to win first set 6-4 @ 7/1
Both players have won the first set in all five of their matches in this tournament but Fils is a tempting price at 7/1 to take the opening clash 6-4 in Cincinnati.
A 6-3 Fils win is favourite in the market at 3/1, which is understandable given that has been his first-set score in each of the last three rounds, but the price difference between 6-3 and 6-4 makes the closer score look better value.
Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe Bet Builder Tip
Under 22.5 total games
Under 0.5 tiebreaks
Arthur Fils over 8.5 aces
Pays 5/1
Fils is in the kind of form to take this title without it becoming a war of attrition and a match with under 22.5 games is a solid first leg to start a bet builder on the final.
His last three matches have lasted 17, 19 and 17 games and there is scope in this line for him to require a little longer to wrap things up.
Neither player has been involved in many lengthy sets, so taking under 0.5 tiebreaks appeals. The pair have been involved in only three breakers in their combined 10 matches in the tournament.
There should still be time for Fils to send down at least nine aces. He has been serving superbly in this tournament and fired down six in his quick win over Cobolli.
Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.
Key Match Stats
Frances Tiafoe has a 4-8 record in ATP Tour finals
Arthur Fils has won four of his six ATP Tour finals
Fils won the only previous meeting between these players in Miami last season
Tiafoe lost to Jannik Sinner in the final of this tournament two years ago
Fils has won four of his five Cincinnati matches in straight sets
Fils has won three of his last four finals, while Tiafoe has lost four of his last five
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
