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Top 14 final - Toulouse v Montpellier
  1. RUGBY UNION
  2. RUGBY UNION TIPS

Toulouse v Montpellier Prediction, Tips and Bet Builder

The French Top 14 is the greatest competition in club rugby, and Toulouse and Montpellier meet on Saturday in the Grand Final.

Toulouse won the 2024-25 title, but to emphasise the competitiveness of the division, they are the only side of last season's top six to have made the 2025/26 play-offs.

Even Bordeaux-Bègles, the winners of both this and last season's European Champions Cups, and beaten in the last two Top 14 finals, couldn't sustain the fight on two fronts.

Montpellier, who finished second in the regular season, four points behind Toulouse, are the team tasked with halting Les Rouge et Noir's quest for a fourth title in a row.

Les Cistes have already won this season's European Challenge Cup and were the last team to claim the Top 14 title before Toulouse reasserted their dominance, beating Castres 29-10 in the 2022 Grand Final.

They beat Toulouse 44-14 at home in September before losing 45-29 at the Stade Ernest-Wallon in March.

Their plan will be to make it physical, but Toulouse look ready to tame anyone.

Toulouse v Montpellier Tips Summary

Best Bet - 1st half handicap - Montpellier +6 @ 10/11
Alternative Bet - Jack Willis anytime tryscorer @ 15/8
Bet Builder - Teddy Thomas to score a try, Thomas Ramos to score a try & Romain Ntamack to score a try @ 25/1

Toulouse v Montpellier

Toulouse v Montpellier Prediction

Best Bet: 1st half handicap - Montpellier +6 @ 10/11

Toulouse have responded to April's Champions Cup quarter-final defeat to Bordeaux by winning the Top 14 regular season and, although they lost 31-20 to Racing 92 in the final round of fixtures, they responded to beat the same opponent 71-17 in last weekend's semi-finals.

Adding to the positives, they also have full-back Blair Kinghorn back, meaning fly-half Romain Ntamack - who banged over all nine of his attempts at goal last week - will take the duties from the tee, with the outstanding Thomas Ramos waiting in reserve.

Kinghorn, Ntamack and Ramos are often interchangeable regardless of the numbers on their backs and run the attack outside superstar scrum-half Antoine Dupont.

That means the Montpellier forwards, who engineered a 25-15 semi-final win over Stade Francais, will have to go hard to prevent them getting quick ball.

Toulouse are not infallible and Joel Merkler is now their first choice tighthead prop after years of decent but sometimes susceptible scrummaging from Dorian Aldegheri.

Montpellier will want to pile everything into the first half, so back them to be in touch by the break.

However, Toulouse's bench featuring Julien Marchand, Thibaud Flament and Ange Ramos looks too good not to win at the Stade de France.

Alternative Bet - Jack Willis anytime tryscorer @ 15/8

All 10 of Toulouse's tries in the semi-final win over Racing 92 were scored by different players, among them flanker Jack Willis.

Possibly the best back-rower in the game, England's unwillingness to bend their selection rules regarding overseas-based players is mind-blowing, but it is to Toulouse's gain.

Willis also crossed for two tries in last year's Top 14 Finals and is a handy price to go over again.

Toulouse v Montpellier Bet Builder Tip

  • Teddy Thomas to score a try

  • Thomas Ramos to score a try

  • Romain Ntamack to score a try

    Pays 25/1

Teddy Thomas has looked rejuvenated since signing for Toulouse last summer after spells at Racing 92 and La Rochelle that started well but fizzled out.

At 32, he appears more focused on ensuring the same does not happen at his current club. While he has played a lot in the centres this season, he starts on the right wing on Saturday.

The opening try scorer in the semi-final, he is tipped to go over again, as is Ramos, who could replace him in the second half.

Ramos has been named among the replacements ahead of Ange Capuozzo and scored two tries in the 2024 Top 14 showpiece in Marseille.

Finally, Ntamack could complete a Toulouse try-scoring trio.

He was the creator-in-chief last week, but Ramos will be keen to get involved in the playmaking duties, so expect Ntamack to spend more time in the wide channels when his colleague comes on.

The 27-year-old scored the decisive try when Toulouse beat La Rochelle in 2023 to spark their run of three straight titles and he seems to finally be rediscovering the zip he showed before suffering the knee injury that ruled him out of the last World Cup.

Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.

Key Match Stats

  • Toulouse have won the last three Top 14 Grand Finals and are the record 24-time winners

  • Montpellier have been French champions once, in 2022

  • This will be Toulouse's 32nd final and Montpellier's fourth

  • Les Bleu et Blanc won this season's European Challenge Cup

  • Toulouse flanker Jack Willis scored two tries in the 2025 Top 14 Final

  • Teddy Thomas has scored 12 tries in his first season with Toulouse

Read more rugby union betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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