The inaugural Nations Championship starts this weekend and one of the fixtures sees Japan play host to Italy in Tokyo.
Having made big strides in the last couple of years, the Cherry Blossoms are having to deal with the absence of coach Eddie Jones and face an Italy team also making good progress.
The Azzurri beat both England and Scotland in this year's Six Nations, before a defeat in the final game against Wales saw them miss out on what would have been a first-ever third-place finish.
Italy head to the Far East with a squad full of experience and will see this as a key fixture, with Nations Championship matches to come against New Zealand and Australia.
Japan v Italy Tips Summary
Best Bet - Under 60.5 points @ 4/7
Alternative Bet - Italy -8.5 @ 10/11
Bet Builder - Italy to win, Tommaso Menoncello anytime tryscorer & Japan to lead at 20 mins @ 17/2
Japan v Italy Prediction
Best Bet: Under 60.5 points @ 4/7
The absence of their coach is likely to have a big impact on the hosts, who will be led by their Forwards coach Neil Hatley.
The experienced Jones has overseen Japan wins over Wales, Canada, USA and Tonga over the last year.
Those results have seen the Cherry Blossoms move up to 12th in the world rankings, but their attacking squad now face a much bigger test.
Japan have been drawn to face Italy, Ireland and France over the next weeks and, although home advantage will help them be competitive, it's not an ideal time for a change at the top.
The home team have also called up uncapped student Ryunosuke Ito to play at fly-half - a big ask against an experienced Italy team.
The Azzurri head to Tokyo with a strong squad and have named five players with over 50 caps each in their starting XV for their opening match of the new tournament.
Gonzalo Quesada's men have conceded over 30 points in just three of their last eight matches and they were in Cardiff, Paris and against world champions South Africa.
Alternative Bet: Italy -8.5 @ 10/11
There is no doubt that Italy are moving in the right direction, but it's their form on the road that still needs improvement.
In the last year, Quesada's squad have claimed landmark victories over the likes of England, Scotland and Australia on home soil.
There have been signs of better performances away from home as well - losing by just seven points in Ireland in February and scoring 24 points against the Springboks in Pretoria last July.
They won 42-14 on their last visit to Japan, but this is likely to be a sterner test with the progress their opponents have made in recent times.
Japan v Italy Bet Builder
Italy to win
Tommaso Menoncello anytime tryscorer
Japan to lead at 20 mins
Pays 17/2
Considering their recent form and the strength of their squad, this looks like a good opportunity for Italy to get a win on the board.
It's worth noting that the last meeting between these two sides came back in the summer of 2024 in Sapporo, when Italy ran out 42-14 victors.
Centre Tommaso Menoncello could have a big role to play for the Italians, with the 23-year-old looking to build on an impressive Six Nations.
The Benetton player scored a try against both Scotland and England and was named Player of the Match in the 23-18 win over the Red Rose.
Stand-in coach Hatley has admitted this week that the game plan will be to attack, with Japan well known to play on the front foot.
An early lead could be crucial as Italy have shown in recent matches that they can finish strongly, scoring all their points in the second half in the defeat to Wales.
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Key Match Stats
Italy have won eight of the previous 10 meetings with Japan
The Azzurri have averaged 32 points in the last four meetings with Japan, who have averaged 23 points
Italy are currently ranked 10th in the world, while Japan are two places below them
Italy have scored nine tries across their last five internationals, but scored the first try in just one of those games
Japan beat Georgia 23-25 in their last match (November 2025), with Seungsin Lee kicking 20 points
There has been less than 20 points difference in two of the three previous meetings in Japan
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
