EFL pundit Gab Sutton has picked his selections from another full billing of Football League action this weekend from the Championship, League One and League Two.
Gab Sutton's EFL tips & predictions
- Lincoln City/Draw - Double Chance v Burnley @ 4/7
- Stockport County to beat Notts County @ 4/7
- Bradford City - Clean Sheet v Oxford United @ 9/4
- Crewe/Draw - Double Chance v Chesterfield @ 6/5
- Tranmere Rovers to beat Crawley @ 8/5
As an accumulator, pays 45/1
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Lincoln City or Draw: Double Chance – 4/7
Lincoln City v Burnley
I’m surprised Lincoln have got all three of their league wins so far away from home, because I expect them to create a real siege mentality at Sincil Bank and become one of the tougher venues in the Championship.
I still back them to do that because, while they haven’t won yet, they’ve had Southampton on the ropes here with the aerial bombardment of crosses into 6’7” target man Mikkel Ladefoged, and Swansea for 80 minutes of the 90.
The Imps can pen in some of the best teams in the league on their own turf, and I expect them to relish the underdog tag against Burnley, as they did in 2017 when Sean Raggett scored that crucial header at Turf Moor, that made them the first non-league team to reach the FA Cup Quarter-Finals since QPR in 1914.
I think the Clarets could come unstuck against Lincoln again, only this time it would be less of a surprise: they’re currently four points worse off than their hosts, and inside the bottom three.
Stockport County to Win – 4/7
Notts County v Stockport County
I’ve spoken to a director in football earlier today, who has spoken to somebody who has studied many coaches at all different levels of the game, and said Jim McNulty at Rochdale was one of the best he’s come across.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, then, that the former defender has made a flying start at Stockport, and got his footballing principles across instantly to a group used to a more direct style under Dave Challinor.
County play some beautiful football, one-touch combination play in wide areas: they’re currently top of the league, and that’s having dropped silly points in games where they were the clear stronger side, so there really is the threat of them peeling away.
The other County, Notts, got a crucial 2-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday in midweek, hauling Martin Paterson’s side out of the drop zone, but I don’t know if they have another upset in them.
Bradford: Clean Sheet - Yes - 9/4
Oxford United v Bradford City
Bradford have been the best defensive team in League One so far this season, with the Bantams having conceded just five goals in their first 11 games, and are yet to concede under Michael Duff after his first three games.
City have established some great partnerships in defensive areas, with goalkeeper Jon McCracken proving a fine shot-stopper, and forging a strong understanding Matt Pennington, Aden Baldwin and George Pratt.
I’m not prepared to back them to score, because I don’t think Jake Beesley is a clinical centre-forward who will get you more than 10, and Nick Powell’s minutes needs to be managed, so they may rely on that defensive base to tick over points between now and January.
Hosts Oxford aren’t to be underestimated – they may be 8th but they’re only three points worse off than their hosts having played two fewer games – but I’m going with the value play here, and I don’t think a Bradford clean sheet will be as big as 9/4 in many more games this season.
Crewe or Draw: Double Chance - 6/5
Chesterfield v Crewe Alexandra
I’m a big numbers guy so normally, I would factor the data heavily into my plays, but in this instance I think there’s value in going against the grain of the metrics.
Yes, Chesterfield have been the most creative team in the division, but I’m not sure that quite entitles them to be overwhelming favourites for the visit of Crewe, who only suffered their first defeat of the season as recently as Tuesday night.
Finishing is a legitimate part of the game, and the Spireites have been wasteful with Lee Bonis missing big chances and Fraser Bryden struggling with the step up, while the Railwaymen have one of the best defences in the league.
In goalkeeper Tom Booth, and a back-four of Lewis Billington, Luke Offord, Josh Stephenson and Kyle Ure, the Alex have a rear-guard that have developed an excellent understanding, so I don’t see them crossing the Pennines empty handed.
Tranmere to Win - 8/5
Crawley Town v Tranmere Rovers
Unlike the Chesterfield stance above, I will go with the numbers this time, for two reasons: because of who they’re facing and because of the price: I don’t quite know what our traders are thinking, pricing Chesterfield at 8/13 and Tranmere at 8/5 – too many oatcakes!
Tranmere have only lost three games so far this season, and when they have failed to win, it’s often because they’ve been all over their opponents in the first half of games and not quite been able to kill them off.
I expect the sheer volume of chances to win out against bottom side Crawley, who parted company with Colin Kazim-Richards this week, and have drafted in Kevin Blackwell… five years after his last work in England, assisting Neil Warnock, and two years after his last job at Lechia Gdańsk in the Polish second-tier.
The visitors have lots of quality and creativity in their squad, and have gained lots of joy this season through right-sided combinations between Joel Senior, Tom Ince and Dylan Jones.
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
