The biggest World Cup in football history takes place this summer and the Racing Post's James Milton has picked out three strong bets for the 48-team tournament in North America.
Argentina are defending champions, having beaten France on penalties after a thrilling 3-3 draw in the 2022 World Cup final in Qatar.
Euro 2024 winners Spain are the favourites in the current World Cup odds and are expected to go well, along with England, Brazil and Portugal, while Scotland make their first appearance at the finals since 1998.
Men’s World Cup Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Spain to win the World Cup (9/2)
Dark Horse Tip: Netherlands to win the World Cup (20/1)
Golden Boot Pick: Julian Alvarez (25/1)
New World Cup Format
The World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, from 32 in 2022, and the contenders are split into 12 groups of four.
The top two in each group, along with the eight best third-placed sides, will qualify for the Round of 32.
An extra knockout round should favour nations with deeper squads, whose managers may be more inclined to rest and rotate their key players during the group stage.
Temperatures are expected to be high, especially in Mexico and the USA, and those conditions could lead to upsets if underdogs handle the heat better than favourites.
Groups to Watch
Here’s three of the most eye-catching groups:
Group C
Brazil
Morocco
Haiti
Scotland
Group F
Netherlands
Japan
Sweden
Tunisia
Group I
France
Senegal
Iraq
Norway
Scotland have been handed a tough draw at their first World Cup for 28 years. They face Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil and 2022 semi-finalists Morocco in Group C and their opening opponents Haiti thrashed New Zealand 4-0 in a recent friendly.
Group F looks one of the most competitive sections. The Netherlands are favourites but Japan, who beat England at Wembley in March, are a dangerous side and Sweden have Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres and Liverpool's Alexander Isak up front.
Outsiders Tunisia are unlikely to roll over as they kept clean sheets in all 10 of their World Cup qualifying matches.
Group I should be another fascinating heat. France are among the trophy favourites but Senegal were excellent at this year's Africa Cup of Nations, Norway won their eight qualifiers by an aggregate score of 37-5, and Iraq held Spain to a 1-1 friendly draw this month.
World Cup Favourites
Odds will display when the market is available.
Spain head the World Cup betting at 9/2 ahead of 5/1 shots France, who lifted the trophy in 2018 and lost on penalties in the 2022 final.
England, runners-up at the last two European Championships, are 13/2 with Brazil 8/1, Portugal 8/1 and holders Argentina 9/1.
Other main contenders include 2014 winners Germany at 14/1, the Netherlands at 20/1 and Norway at 25/1.
Top Goalscorer Favourites
France's Kylian Mbappe was top goalscorer at the 2022 World Cup, scoring a hat-trick in the final, and he is 11/2 to retain his crown.
England captain Harry Kane, who topped the scoring chart in 2018, is 13/2 and Spain's first-choice striker Mikel Oyarzabal is 12/1.
Erling Haaland scored 16 goals in eight qualifiers for Norway. The Manchester City star is a 14/1 chance and he is followed in the betting by the legendary Lionel Messi (16/1) and Cristiano Ronaldo (20/1) and brilliant Spain winger Lamine Yamal (20/1).
Data-Led World Cup Predictions & Analytics
When diving deeper into potential outcomes, advanced metrics like xGF (expected goals for) and clean sheet percentage give a more predictive edge than headline form.
Here’s what the data tells us about some of the World Cup contenders:
Colombia recorded an xGF of 1.45 per 90 minutes during World Cup qualifying – significantly higher than South American powerhouses Argentina (1.27) and Brazil (1.26)
Backing England to win to nil has been a winning bet in 12 of their 14 competitive internationals since Euro 2024
Sweden conceded 15 goals in eight qualifying games – the worst record of any European nation who reached the finals
Ecuador let in only five goals in 18 World Cup qualifiers – a rate of 0.28 per 90 minutes.
However, their xGA (expected goals against) was 0.95, suggesting they may struggle to maintain those high defensive standards in Group E
World Cup Outright Prediction
Spain were impressive winners of Euro 2024, knocking out hosts Germany and France before beating England 2-1 in the final.
They continue to evolve under Luis de la Fuente, reaching the Nations League final in 2023 and 2025, and their top-class midfield can power them to World Cup glory.
Keeping possession will be crucial given the sultry conditions in North America and La Roja are the best in the world in that department.
A France forward line featuring Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise could be undermined by their weakness in defence and midfield.
There are also question marks over Brazil, England and Portugal while Messi, the inspiration for Argentina's 2022 triumph, will turn 39 during this summer's tournament.
Spain should outclass Group H rivals Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay and they look worthy favourites to lift the trophy.
Dark Horses to Watch
The Netherlands qualified in style, finishing with a goal difference of +23 from eight matches, and they merit an each-way bet at 20/1.
Coach Ronald Koeman has great squad depth and the Dutch have done well at the last two major tournaments.
They lost on penalties to winners Argentina at the quarter-final stage of the 2022 World Cup and conceded a late goal to lose 2-1 to England in the Euro 2024 semi-finals.
Expert Tip – Julian Alvarez to win the Golden Boot
Julian Alvarez won the World Cup with Argentina at the age of 22 and the exciting forward could play a starring role at the 2026 tournament.
The Albiceleste have a decent draw against Algeria, Austria and Jordan in Group J so Alvarez may well make a flying start in the top-goalscorer race.
He scored 10 goals in 15 starts for Atletico Madrid in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League and his La Liga feats included a brace in September's 5-2 derby win over Real Madrid.
Who lifts the World Cup?
France, England, Brazil, Portugal and holders Argentina all arrive at the tournament with strong chances but Spain set a high standard.
La Roja have been remarkably consistent since Luis de la Fuente took charge following the 2022 World Cup and they can follow up their superb triumph at Euro 2024.
Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
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