Fenerbahce appear to already have one foot in the UEFA Champions League play-off round ahead of their trip to Austria to take on Sturm Graz in the second leg of their third qualifying round tie on Tuesday.
First-half goals from Talisca and Mason Greenwood helped Fener to a deserved 2-0 victory in last week's first leg at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.
Based on that performance, Ismail Kartal's side will be confident of completing the job at the Liebenauer Stadium, but Sturm Graz thrashed Hearts in the second qualifying round and will be hopeful of staging a comeback.
The winner of this tie will go on to face either Lyon or Sparta Prague in the play-off round and keep their dreams alive of reaching the league stage of the UEFA Champions League.
Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce Tips Summary
Best Bet - Sturm Graz or draw double chance @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - Nelson Weiper anytime scorer @ 3/1
Bet Builder - Under 3 goals, Both teams to score - No & Most goals in second half @ 11/2
Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce Prediction
Best Bet: Sturm Graz or draw double chance @ 5/6
There are no two ways about it, Fenerbahce were comprehensively the better side during last week's first leg, racking up over 70% possession and registering more shots (17-5), shots on target (10-1) and a higher xG (1.37-0.16) than their beleaguered opponents.
A similar performance on Tuesday and there should only be one winner, but Fener are not great travellers in Europe, especially in the UEFA Champions League, winning only one and losing eight of their last 12 away trips in the competition.
The Turkish giants also don't need to win this game so could adopt a more cautious approach, which should allow Sturm Graz to enjoy a lot more control than they did in Istanbul.
It was a frustrating night for Fabio Ingolitsch's side in Turkey, but they bounced back with a 2-0 win at Hartberg In the Austrian Bundesliga on Saturday and they will also be buoyed by their efforts in the previous round of UEFA Champions League qualifying.
Sturm Graz thrashed Hearts 6-0 on aggregate in the second qualifying round, including triumphing in the home leg 4-0, and their recent European record at the Liebenauer Stadium will also provide encouragement, as they have lost only one of their last eight continental matches at the venue.
That run includes wins over RB Leipzig and Girona when they last reached the league phase of the UEFA Champions League in 2024/25 and they should be able to deliver another positive performance on Tuesday.
Whether that is enough for the Austrians to turn the tie around is another question, but this qualifying contest should have one or two more twists to come.
Alternative Bet: Nelson Weiper anytime scorer @ 3/1
Young German striker Nelson Weiper only arrived at Sturm Graz on a season-long loan from Mainz last month but he has already had a big impact, coming off the bench to score both goals in Saturday's domestic league win over Hartberg.
Given Sturm Graz lacked any real attacking threat in the first leg of this tie, Weiper will hope he has done enough to force his way into the starting line up and he could have a major say in Tuesday's clash.
The 21-year-old scored twice for Mainz in Europe last season, including in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League qualifying round clash with Rosenborg, a tie where the Germans overcame a first-leg deficit to advance.
Weiper will be hoping history can repeat itself for his new club as Sturm Graz look to keep their hopes of reaching the league phase alive.
Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce Bet Builder Tip
- Under 3 goals
- Both teams to score - No
- Most goals in second half
Pays 11/2
Sturm Graz have kept four clean sheets in six matches this season and have only conceded three goals in their last eight European home fixtures.
All three of Fener's matches this season have featured a maximum of two goals, a trend that can continue on Tuesday, while with the visitors not needing to commit bodies forward, coupled with Sturm Graz boasting a strong defensive record, means that siding against goals at both ends could also be a smart play.
If there are to be goals, they are more likely to come in the second half. Five of the six goals Sturm Graz scored against Hearts came after the break, as did both their strikes in Saturday's domestic success over Hartberg.
The Austrians also may adopt a cautious approach to start with, not wanting to concede an early goal that would surely take the tie beyond them, but at some point in the second half they will surely have to go for it, increasing the likelihood of goals later in the contest.
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Key Match Stats
- Fenerbahce hold a 2-0 lead from last week's first leg
- Fener have not made the main draw of the UEFA Champions League since the 2008/09 season
- Sturm Graz last reached the league phase of the UEFA Champions League in 2024/25
- The Austrians have only lost one of their last eight home matches in Europe
- Sturm Graz thrashed Hearts 6-0 on aggregate in the second qualifying round
- Fenerbahce reached this stage with a 2-1 aggregate success over Gornik Zabrze
- The winner of this tie will face either Lyon or Sparta Prague in the play-off round
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
