Penarol v Corinthians Prediction: Brazilians 9/5 to extend winning run

Penarol have to take maximum points from their two remaining games to qualify for the Copa Libertadores knockout stages, starting with Thursday night’s home clash with Group E leaders Corinthians.

The Uruguayans’ hopes were unexpectedly revived when Independiente Santa Fe beat Platense 2‑1, keeping the Carbonero's hopes of progression mathematically alive - but only just. 

They now need to win both remaining fixtures and hope Platense fail to pick up points in Sao Paulo next week.

Corinthians, meanwhile, travel to Montevideo with qualification for the round of 16 already assured.

Victories over Platense, Santa Fe and Penarol, each by 2-0 scorelines, put Fernando Diniz’s side in control of the group.

They now hold a four-point lead over the Argentinian club after Gustavo Henrique’s stoppage-time leveller earned a 1-1 draw against Santa Fe in Colombia earlier this month.  

Penarol come into this match with renewed confidence after back‑to‑back league wins, but their home form remains a major concern.

With pressure weighing heavily on the hosts and the visitors rotating due to injuries and load management, this contest could go either way.

Penarol v Corinthians Tips Summary

Best Bet - Both teams to score @ 11/10
Alternative Bet - Corinthians to win @ 9/5
Bet Builder - Draw or Corinthians - Double Chance, Under 10 corners & Gustavo Henrique 1+ shots on target @ 7/1

Penarol v Corinthians Prediction

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ 11/10

Both teams have scored in Penarol's last four games in all competitions, including their only previous home match in this year's Copa Libertadores.

Diego Aguirre’s side were stunned 2-1 on their own turf by Platense, who secured their first-ever Libertadores win thanks to a second-half penalty.

Defensive lapses have been costing the five-time South American champions dearly this season and they were guilty of sloppiness in the build-up to Platense’s leveller in their last continental clash.

Star centre-back Lucas Ferreira is absent for this match through suspension and that could cause some more issues against a side that created plenty of chances when they faced off in Sao Paulo.

Corinthians have been defensively disciplined in Libertadores action this season - in stark contrast to their domestic league form.

Timao shipped three goals against Botafogo last weekend and two in each of their two previous Brazilian Serie A games.

Both teams have scored in four of their last five matches in all competitions and there looks to be every chance that this clash, which is crucial for both teams, sees goals at both ends.

Alternative Bet: Corinthians to win @ 9/5

Corinthians’ Libertadores form has been a world apart from their domestic struggles. Three wins and a draw from four matches underlines their consistency, and even a rotated side should have enough quality to push Carboneros to their limits.

Penarol’s home record is simply too poor to inspire confidence. One win in six, three defeats, and a general lack of fluency in Montevideo suggests that the pressure of the occasion may weigh heavily on them.

Corinthians do not need to chase the game, and so Penarol may be forced to push up and leave more space behind their backline than they can handle.

The Brazilians have enough pace to threaten on the counter attack and are good value to pick up a fourth win of the group campaign.

Penarol v Corinthians Bet Builder Tip

• Draw or Corinthians - Double Chance
• Under 10 corners
• Gustavo Henrique 1+ shots on target
  Pays 7/1

Corinthians’ superior structure and experience make them a tough team to beat - particularly away from home, winning two and drawing two of their last six on the road. 

The corner count is unlikely to reach double figures if recent trends are anything to go by. Penarol’s recent home matches have been cagey and Corinthians tend to control possession without forcing a high‑tempo, high‑volume attacking game.

Big Corinthians centre-back Gustavo Henrique has been an aerial threat in the opposition penalty box in this competition, scoring in his side’s last three Libertadores games.

Backing him to register at least one shot on target is a worthwhile addition to the Bet Builder in the absence of Penarol’s most dominant centre-back Ferreira.

Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.

Key Match Stats

• Penarol have won just one of their last six home matches

• Corinthians have won two and drawn two of their last six matches on the road

• Both teams have scored in Penarol’s last four games in all competitions

• Corinthians won the reverse fixture 2‑0

• Gustavo Henrique has scored in three consecutive Copa Libertadores matches

• Penarol must win both of their remaining group matches to stay alive in the competition

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.