Netherlands v Japan Prediction: 11/4 Gakpo to lead Oranje assault

World Cup Group F kicks off on Sunday with a fascinating fixture between two highly rated sides as the Netherlands meet Japan in Dallas.

The Dutch are favourites to top the group and are widely viewed as outside contenders for a deep run, but their recent performances have raised concerns.

Their final tournament dress rehearsal against Uzbekistan in New York was flat, disjointed and lacking invention. A 2–1 win — courtesy of two Cody Gakpo penalties — masked the reality that the Oranje failed to score from open play and created few clear chances.

Japan, by contrast, enter the tournament with confidence after recording notable victories over Brazil and England in the past year.

Manager Hajime Moriyasu has blended experience and youth superbly, and his side’s tactical discipline, fluid front line and relentless pressing make them one of the tournament’s most intriguing dark horses.

With both teams targeting a fast start in a competitive group, this clash could be a crowd pleaser.

Netherlands v Japan Tips Summary

Best Bet – Cody Gakpo 2+ Shots on Target @ 11/4
Alternative Bet – Takefusa Kubo 1+ Shot on Target @ 11/10
Bet Builder – Both Teams to Score, Gakpo Anytime Goalscorer & Under 4 Cards @ 13/2

Netherlands v Japan Prediction

Best Bet: Cody Gakpo 2+ Shots on Target @ 11/4

Despite a disappointing club season, Gakpo remains the Netherlands’ most reliable attacking outlet.

His international record is outstanding — 21 goals in 50 caps — and he coolly converted both spot-kicks in the 2–1 win over Uzbekistan on Tuesday.

He registered multiple shots on target in three of the Netherlands’ last five qualifying matches, and that should be no surprise given Ronald Koeman’s 4-3-3 system is perfect for him to cut inside onto his stronger right foot and shoot early.

With Donyell Malen likely to start centrally and Crysencio Summerville on the right against Japan, Gakpo will again shoulder much of the Oranje’s goal threat.

The Blue Samurai’s back three can be exposed by wide forwards driving inside, and Gakpo’s scoring record at major tournaments, where he has scored three times apiece at the last World Cup finals and Euros, should give him the confidence to test Japan keeper Zion Suzuki.

Alternative Bet: Takefusa Kubo 1+ Shot on Target @ 11/10

Takefusa Kubo is Japan’s most dangerous attacking player and can also be backed to register at least one shot on target.

Whether drifting inside from the right or operating between the lines, the Real Sociedad star consistently finds pockets of space to shoot.

Japan’s fluid front three — Kubo, Ritsu Doan and Ayase Ueda — interchange constantly, and Kubo’s left‑footed strikes from the edge of the box are a recurring feature of their attacking play. He also takes free‑kicks, adding another route to a shot on target.

Against a Dutch defence that has looked vulnerable to quick combinations and runners in behind, Kubo should get at least one clear sight of goal.

Netherlands v Japan Bet Builder

• Both Teams to Score
• Cody Gakpo Anytime Goalscorer
• Under 4 Cards
  
  Pays 13/2

This match has all the ingredients for goals at both ends because of the teams’ commitment to pressing and ability to find pockets of space in their opponents’ formations.

Both teams have scored in four of the Netherlands’ last six games as they have conceded to opponents ranked lower than Japan, such as Uzbekistan, Algeria and Poland.

Gakpo's goal record in major tournaments is outstanding with six strikes across his last 11 appearances, bagging in five of his six group stage games.

And don’t expect the referee to be kept busy by these two teams in Dallas. The Dutch received only six yellow cards in eight qualifiers while Japan collected a mere eight cautions in 16 matches en route to the finals.

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Key Match Stats

• Gakpo scored both goals from penalties in the Netherlands’ latest 2–1 win over Uzbekistan
• Japan have beaten Brazil (3–2) and England (1–0) in the past year
• The Dutch have not scored from open play in their last two matches
• Gakpo has 21 goals in 50 caps for the Netherlands
• Kubo has registered a shot on target in five of his last seven Japan appearances
• Japan averaged 0.5 cards per game in qualifying while the Dutch averaged 0.75

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.