Lazio will look to continue their excellent start to the season when hosting Cagliari on Sunday.
Gennaro Gattuso's side have taken 25 points from a possible 27 to sit joint top in Serie A alongside title favourites Inter, while Cagliari come into the encounter on the back of a three-game losing streak.
Speaking on the Football Betting Club podcast, Nathan Joyes is expecting free-scoring Lazio to continue their good form.
Lazio v Cagliari Prediction & Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Nathan said: "No one really expected them to have such a strong start to the season, but they've been massively impressive, and they take on Cagliari at home. I've landed on over 2.5 match goals at 4/5. I'm quite surprised with the price—I thought it'd be a lot shorter.
"Midweek, Lazio went away to Sassuolo and won 6-2, having missed two penalties as well. The hosts did have a man sent off, but it was already 3-1 in favour of Lazio at that point. They've just been so impressive. They went away to Juventus and won 3-0 as well. The way in which they can diversify their attack is what's caught my eye; in the Juventus game, they sat back and countered effectively, but in other games, like midweek, they can take the game towards to an opponent.
"I think Cagliari are the perfect team to get at. They had a really strong start to the season, but it was all false data. A stat that I've really started to look at is touches in the opposition box. Cagliari got a draw against Juventus, but Juventus had 50 touches in the box, and it was just one of those games where they should have comfortably won. Same with Atalanta—they went away and won 2-1, but Atalanta had 42 touches inside the box. Again, it just showed that they were overachieving, and that's really come to light in recent weeks: they lost 4-0 on the road against Monza, then midweek lost 4-2 against Roma, and were sandwiched in between a 2-0 loss at home to Bologna, who aren't anything special.
"The Roma game caught my eye, though, because Cagliari deserved to lose, but they pulled it back to 2-2 before Roma scored two incredibly late goals. They've just been so vulnerable defensively, yet still happy to attack. Now, Lazio have conceded in four of their last five. So while they're are looking really strong, their defence has been more fragile, living up to pre-season predictions. Nobody expected Lazio to be this good, but we are seeing some defensive issues at the back.
"Because of that, I thought the line would be slightly higher, so I think there's value here. Lazio are incredibly chaotic, but in a good way if you're looking at goals. It's a rare trip to Italy for me, but there have been so many goals in Serie A this year—it's normally an unders market, but it's been anything but this year. Maybe with the rules and regulations changing regarding throw-ins and how quickly free-kicks need to be taken, it's just picked up the pace. So, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 catches the eye."
Key Match Stats
Lazio have scored at least two goals in each of their last seven Serie A games
Cagliari have conceded 10 goals in their last three games
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