Arsenal look to bounce back from their humiliating EFL Cup exit at the hands of Fleetwood when travelling to Anfield to take on Liverpool on Sunday.
A toothless Gunners display saw Mikel Arteta's men eliminated on penalties, though the odds-on Premier League favourites can put that behind them with a convincing performance against the Reds.
After an unconvincing start to life under Andoni Iraola, Liverpool have been much improved of later, scoring 15 goals in their last five games since the 3-0 defeat to Manchester City, knocking Chelsea out of the EFL Cup on penalties on Wednesday.
Despite their free-scoring nature, Mark Stinchcombe on the Football Betting Club podcast expects cagey affair at Anfield.
Liverpool v Arsenal Prediction & Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.75 goals @ 1.725
Mark said: "Arsenal are 5/4 favourites here, with Liverpool 2/1 underdogs at Anfield. It's not often that would have been in Premier League history, but obviously Arsenal are coming here as champions after Liverpool had an underwhelming season last year. Arsenal have won seven of their eight games this season, so they're obviously in good form, and they've won without conceding in five of their last eight matches—which is obviously frustrating for our Pickford Golden Glove bet!
"Liverpool are unbeaten in seven of their eight games, so I think there's a chance here that these two will cancel each other out and we'll end up with a low-scoring game on our hands. As a result, I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the underdog here. We've got the best defence in the league in Arsenal with only five conceded, travelling to the fourth-best defence with only eight conceded. Neither attack is really firing: Arsenal have only scored 13 goals, and Liverpool have only scored 11. Therefore, Liverpool's games are only averaging 2.38 goals per game, and Arsenal are averaging just 2.25.
"With Liverpool, I think a lot of people expected Andoni Iraola to bring chaos along similar lines to Klopp. That may still happen further down the line, but right now it doesn't seem to be. Bournemouth's games were averaging 2.95 goals per game last season, so you can see that drop-off is quite big to 2.38 for Liverpool and Iraola. But I think there are mitigating circumstances really; it's the result of having a bit of a lopsided squad with no natural right-back and no natural right-winger, and that's borne out statistically. Liverpool have the third-most attacks in the league down their left-hand side, whereas on the other side, it's the third-fewest.
"And I don't think it's any surprise when you've got Ronald Araújo, who's a centre-back essentially, playing at right-back. He's not used to being in the right position like a typical right-back who would bomb on and get around his winger—although I think he is trying. We saw last weekend against Brighton his tenaciousness to win the ball back and stay on his feet to set up Wirtz for the first goal. So it is coming, but he's not a natural right-back. Iraola has used Gakpo on the right, Barcola there last weekend, Muñoz, and Ngumoha—who I think would all prefer the left-hand side. So that's why we're seeing so much of the ball go down Liverpool's left, and why the attack isn't quite firing. Liverpool are 13th for expected goals created, which is behind the likes of bottom side Sunderland.
"Defensively for Liverpool, though, you've got players that actually love to defend this season, throwing themselves in front of the ball and even heading it when it's on the deck. Jacquet and Araújo are monsters defensively so far—just where you want them to be, in the right position and willing to throw their bodies on the line, and nothing stupid, no back-passes when they should clear their lines. Last season, Liverpool's right-hand side of defence was a sieve with Konaté and whoever the other right-back was (Frimpong, Bradley, Szoboszlai, Joe Gomez), but now they're looking an awful lot more solid.
"In terms of injuries, Arsenal are without Bukayo Saka, obviously one of their best players. Last season, when Saka started, Arsenal's games averaged 2.64 goals per game; Saka didn't make the XI in 13 matches, that average dropped to 2.46—nearly 0.2 of a goal fewer. Tzolis and Madueke are both injured as well, so it will be interesting to see what Arteta is going to do in terms of his winger options.
"Last season at Anfield it was 1-0 with a very late Szoboszlai free-kick, and then it was 0-0 at the Emirates. In both games, it felt like Arsenal were too scared to attack. When Liverpool had no strikers at the Emirates, Arsenal went off as short as 4/7, yet they barely laid a glove on Liverpool and I don't think created more than one expected goal. Combined, those two matches only saw 20 and 17 shots in those two matches, and in both games combined just 1.89 expected goals.
"So I'm going to take the extra security of backing under 2.75 goals at 1.75. The only way the bet will completely lose is if there are at least four goals, and honestly, there's a chance it could even be 0-0 here."
Alternative Bet: Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 2+ times; Bruno Guimaraes to commit 2+ fouls; Ezri Konsa to be fouled 2+ times; Cody Gakpo to be fouled 2+ times; Florian Wirtz 2+ shots @ 20/1
"Because there's only one Premier League game on Sunday, I thought we'd come up with a little Bet Builder as something additional to cheer on. I've put a few player-based legs together.
"Bruno Guimarães to win over 1.5 fouls at 8/11; this has won in his last six appearances against Liverpool.
"Going the opposite way, backing Guimarães to commit over 1.5 fouls at 6/5, which I think is really nice; that's won in four of his last appearances against Liverpool.
"Ezri Konsa has been fouled over 1.5 times in seven of his last eight games against Liverpool that's 10/11.
"Cody Gakpo has won over 1.5 fouls in his last five games against Arsenal at even money.
"To round it off, Florian Wirtz seems to be coming into his own a bit more and growing in confidence. He's had at least two shots in six of his eight games under Iraola this season—an improvement on last season when he averaged 1.5 shots per game; he's now averaging two shots per game, and it's 8/11 for him to have two shots.
"Bundle those five legs together, and that gives you a 20/1 bet, which we will provide in the description."
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