The League One play-offs are upon us, kicking off this weekend. But who and what will win out?
The creativity of Bolton Wanderers, the efficiency of Stockport County, the midfield of Bradford City, or the spirit, togetherness of the underdog story that is Stevenage?
That’s what we’ll unpack here in my 2025/26 League One play-offs preview.
Stockport County
Why they will do it
Managerial experience.
Dave Challinor’s extraordinary record of never finishing below the play-offs as a manager continued this season, as Stockport bagged third spot.
It means every year of a managerial career that began in 2010, he’s either had what it takes to get over the line in the high-pressure stage of the season, going up automatically, or tasted the play-offs.
He’s won six promotions as a manager. Sure, five of them are in non-league, at a lower profile, but if anything the pressure of getting Hartlepool United and Stockport back into the Football League is greater than the pressure of getting County into the Championship well ahead of schedule.
The Hatters had to watch Leyton Orient get to Wembley last year – they’re determined to be the ones celebrating this time around.
Why they might not
Performances.
Challinor has had Simon Wilson assisting him on recruitment as Director of Football throughout his tenure up until this season, when he took the CEO job and moved away from the football side.
It’s no coincidence that recruitment this summer hasn’t been up to scratch: only a fraction of this year’s 20-odd signings have worked out, and their best performers are stalwarts like Ethan Pye, Oliver Norwood and Kyle Wootton.
It’s lucky Wootton – historically a selfless target man – has hit form with 19 goals this year, because nobody else is in double-figures.
Stars of previous seasons, Isaac Olaofe and Louie Barry, returned in January, but they haven’t had the impact they’d hoped to – yet.
What the odds say
If Stockport’s performance levels this season were more reliable, if their recruitment had improved them, then 2/1 to win promotion would look very appealing.
Instead, we’re relying on the attacking trio of Wootton, Olaofe and Barry coming good on the big occasions, which is a fair possibility – but one I would be more willing to back at 3/1, or maybe 5/2, rather than 2/1 which is a tad skinny.
It’s a no from me.
Bradford City
Why they will do it
Strong rearguard. Bradford boast the second best defensive record of the four teams, having conceded just 51 goals, and the best defensive xG at a nicely aligned 50.91.
Reliable goalkeeper Sam Walker has been an ever-present, while recruits Curtis Tilt and Aden Baldwin have been much stronger at this level than many expected.
In midfield, meanwhile, Bobby Pointon, Antoni Sarcevic and Jenson Metcalfe have earned rave reviews for their performances in their respective pressing and playmaking roles, while Max Power has proved a fine replacement for Richie Smallwood.
Why they might not
Bradford’s performance levels in the first three months of the season were excellent, but they’ve dropped off since October.
Tying in with that, the Bantams took a whopping 43 points from their first 23 league games, and 34 points from the second 23, a drop-off of 21% from 1.87 PPG to 1.48.
Although in general their recruitment has been excellent since David Sharpe arrived as Director of Football in 2024, they didn’t quite get the January window right: of the six additions, only Kayden Jackson has enhanced the squad.
What the odds say
There’s a bit of temptation with Bradford at the price of 7/2, denoting a 22% probability that’s less than the average one in four. Whether it’s worth pursuing depends on your perspective.
On the one hand, City are the best prepared for the play-offs, having been out of the automatics conversation throughout the second half of the season, but relatively comfortable in their play-off berth for much of that time too.
On the other hand, they’ve not had much of the carrot or stick to keep them honest, and it’s hard to say whether they can turn on their early-season performances like a tap.
Bolton Wanderers
Why they will do it
Creativity. With an xG For of 78.46, Bolton have been the most inventive side of the four over the course of the season, and they’ve had star loanee Amario Cozier-Duberry back from injury for the business end to ensure that strength remains.
With Max Conway and Josh Sheehan also slotting them through, Wanderers have what it takes to carve teams open.
They’re solid if imperfect defensively, with just 52 goals conceded, and have key men like Ethan Erhahon and George Johnston to return to play a part.
Why they might not
With just one win in six to finish the season, Bolton don’t go into the play-offs in the best of form, and they’re a tad light on firepower.
Strikers Sam Dalby and Mason Burstow have 11 and 12 league goals to their respective names, and the latter has a great relationship with Cozier-Duberry, but they don’t have a prolific goalscorer.
Defensively, meanwhile, they play a back four with a squad built for a three, which means they either play centre-backs at full-back or wing-backs, and can sometimes find that attacking and defensive happy-medium to be elusive.
What the odds say
I make Bolton the likeliest team of the four to win the play-offs, and by a reasonable margin, but would still struggle to justify 7/4 quotes.
I give them a 30% chance of winning, and an implied probability of 35% (so about 19/10) would be just about the highest percentage/shortest odds I’d be willing to go with this.
Whereas, at the 36.4% probability the 7/4 implies, it’s just a tiny notch too short, and it leaves me looking elsewhere.
Which brings me onto…
Stevenage
Why they will do it
The story.
Little old Stevenage, founded as recently as 1976, have the opportunity to honour their 50-year anniversary with the most astonishing promotion in their entire history, and one of the most iconic in the history of the Football League.
Alex Revell admitted he wasn’t ready when he took the job the first time around in 2020, but after learning from Steve Evans en route to League Two promotion in 2022/23, and a top-10 League One finish in 2023/24, he delivered a solid, mid-table finish last year in his first season of his second stint.
The Boro have built their incredible journey on watertight defensive foundations, but they were short of goals last year, scoring the third-fewest in the division.
Instead of signing a first-choice striker, though, they backed Jamie Reid to do the business with a full pre-season with more creativity around him, and it’s proved a stroke of genius from Revell, and his excellent Director of Football, Leon Hunter.
Reid has recaptured his 2023/24 form, Stevenage have kept the joint-most clean sheets in the entire division (19), and they kept their play-off spot on the final day thanks to a dramatic injury-time winner from Dan Sweeney against Wigan.
A wonderful moment, and one that could yet be looked upon as one of the biggest and best in the club’s history.
Why they might not
Depth. Stevenage have overachieved on a limited budget this season, and while their best XI is up there with their competitors, they don’t have the ability their rivals do to make changes without a drop in quality.
If fatigue sets in, it could be a bridge too far.
What the odds say
Bolton might be the likeliest of the four to win, but when it comes to win, the value is definitely with Stevenage.
They have all the organisational qualities required to thrive in tight games, and a fantastic team spirit led by an exciting young manager.
There’s serious 2019/20 Wycombe vibes and at 9/2, the Boro carry a real romance factor and could give you a great run for your money.
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
