Cycling's final Grand Tour of the year begins on Saturday as 184 riders from 23 teams compete in the 81st edition of the Vuelta a Espana, and Racing Post's Jack Ogalbe has provided his tips and predictions.
The race begins with a 9 km individual time-trial in Monaco and the 3,275 km route packs in 57,079 metres of elevation gain over 21 days of racing, with the final stage concluding in Granada on 13th September.
It is a typically bumpy parcours, with only four stages classified as flat. There are four hilly days, plus another which concludes on a category one climb, six medium mountain routes, six mountain days and another time-trial in the final week. Even the previously procession-style final stage could explode on an exciting circuit that takes in the sights of Granada.
The two rest days will be on the second and third Mondays, and the race includes time spent in Moncao, France and Andorra before working its way down Spain's east coast, after which the peloton spends the final fortnight battling in the south of the country.
That means long transfers and hard, hot racing, and the podium hopefuls need to hang in and be ready for stages 18-20, which include a TT and then two huge days of climbing.
Reigning champion Jonas Vingegaard will not defend his title. The Dane won May's Giro d'Italia, becoming the eighth male cyclist to win all the Grand Tours, but then crashed out of July's Tour de France with a fractured collarbone. Even so, he was never likely to return to Spain, having already ridden two Grand Tours this season.
Instead, Team Visma–Lease a Bike will be led by the versatile Wout van Aert, who himself has battled injury all year. Steven Kruijswijk, who was fourth in this race in 2018 and finished on the podium at the 2019 Tour, rides his final Grand Tour before retiring.
They have also selected 2023 winner Sepp Kuss and up-and-coming sprinter Matthew Brennan.
The headliner is UAE Team Emirates-XRG's Tadej Pogacar, who returns to the Vuelta for the first time since podiuming as a teenager in 2019 and aiming to become only the ninth rider to win all three Grand Tours.
Primoz Roglic also enters in search of a record fifth Vuelta victory. The Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe rider has centred his year on this race, yet his recent training crash continued a familiar theme and at 36, the legs may not be what they once were.
Like its Italian and French counterparts, the Vuelta also has points and mountains prizes, as well as a jersey for the best young rider.
Vuelta a Espana Tips Summary
Best Bet - Joao Almeida Top 3 Finish @ 5/2
Alternative Bet - Mads Pedersen to win the Points Classification @ 9/4
Alternative Bet - Sepp Kuss to win the Mountains Classification @ 50/1 each-way
Vuelta a Espana Prediction
Best Bet - Joao Almeida Top 3 Finish @ 5/2
Pogacar's domination at July's Tour makes him the unsurprising 1/10 favourite, as close to a certainty as you can get in a sport as unpredictable as cycling.
His superiority is likely to see him attack early, with the six days after the opening time-trial all featuring plenty of climbing. That policy has worked for both him and his team, and he has made a nice habit of helping his colleagues reach the podium once he feels comfortable in the race lead.
Joao Almeida was second in 2025, winning a stage, and should be targeting another top three.
The Portuguese has had a quiet year and crashed at the recent Tour of Poland. However, if he has recovered well, his form should be good, with this a clear focus for his season.
If Pogacar gets an early advantage, expect him to repeat his efforts from the Tour, where he helped team-mate Isaac del Toro make the podium, with a Pogacar-Almeida straight forecast priced at 4/1.
Alternative Bet - Mads Pedersen to win the Points Classification @ 9/4
Mads Pedersen won the points classification at the Tour, completing the Grand Tour set, and can back it up in Spain, where he also claimed this prize in 2022 and 2025.
The hilly parcours of July's race played to his strengths in that he was powerful enough to consistently get in the break on the harder days, picking up points in the intermediate sprints, while also competing in the final on the flat days.
Pedersen will have similar ambitions here, and his sturdiness can be his superpower, so expect him to regularly get in the break.
Van Aert, who won three stages in 2024 before a DNF, is a rider in the same mould, yet injuries have disrupted his year, while pure sprinters like Brennan and Jordi Meeus may get caught out on the big days and burn their matches battling through the mountains.
Expect Pedersen to go up the road early and pile up the points again.
Alternative Bet - Sepp Kuss to win the Mountains Classification @ 50/1 each-way
The mountain classification tends to be more open at the Vuelta, with home riders continually attacking.
However, another UAE man, Jay Vine, has won the prize in the last two years and hopes to emulate David Moncoutie, the most recent rider to win this competition three Vueltas in a row.
Vine is 10/1, yet the rider who catches the eye is 50/1 shot, Kuss. His team's goals for this race are unclear, and the American is the type of rider who can look after himself and pick up surprise results, like he showed in 2023.
The American has already ridden the Giro and Tour, finishing 13th at both. Tiredness could be a factor, but his Vuelta win three years ago also came after competing in Italy (12th) and France (14th).
His price for the mountains prize sticks out as a great each-way play, but 11/10 for a fourth Vuelta top-10 finish isn't a bad call either for a rider expected to get stronger as the race unfolds.
Key Match Stats
The 81st Vuelta a Espana runs from 22nd August to 13th September
The route includes 21 stages and totals 3,275km and features 57,079m of elevation
Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar is hoping to become the ninth rider to win all three Grand Tours in their career
His UAE Team Emirates-XRG colleague Jay Vine has won the Vuelta's mountains classification in the last two years
Lidl-Trek's Mads Pedersen won the points classification at the Tour and the same prize at the 2022 and 2025 Vueltas
Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe's Primoz Roglic is riding to win a record fifth Vuelta title
Read more cycling betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
