Pakistan had the better of Sri Lanka in their recent white-ball battles but attention now turns to the longest format, and the hosts have not been in such great form in the red-ball arena.
The Men in Green overcame Sri Lanka 2-1 in their recent T20I series and traded blows with the Islanders in the tri-series involving England, before coming out on top in a nip-and-tuck final at the end of last month.
Test cricket is a different proposition altogether though and Pakistan go into the two-match series rock-bottom of the ICC World Test Championship table, with Sri Lanka seventh of nine in the standings.
Match Prediction
Sri Lanka to win @ 7/4
This is a tough one as neither side has performed at all well in Test cricket in recent times, with Pakistan winning just two of nine matches in the ongoing ICC World Test Championship, while Sri Lanka have won just one of six.
Mike Hesson's men have also been showing a worrying trend of collapsing when things have not gone their way.
After winning the first Test against South Africa last year, the Proteas bounced back with a convincing eight-wicket win in the second, while Bangladesh proved too strong in a subsequent two-Test series, winning by 104 and 78 runs.
Pakistan were bowled out for 120 in their second innings in the first Test in the West Indies in a 90-run defeat and, while they fought back to draw the series with an eight-wicket win in the second, their tour of England earlier this summer was something of a shambles as they suffered three heavy defeats, which a mid-series upheaval was unable to prevent.
Seven losses in their last eight Tests is hardly filling the hosts with confidence, although the fact that there has not been a draw in any of the last 23 Tests involving Pakistan does suggest there will be a positive result.
Sri Lanka have been far from firing on all cylinders but have shown some positive signs, beating Bangladesh 1-0 in a two-Test series, while at least avoiding defeat in two of their four subsequent Tests.
The most recent came against India, fighting back in their second innings to reach 429-9 to salvage a draw after being forced to follow on 213 runs behind.
Pakistan do have a strong record against these opponents in five-day cricket, winning two of the last three series and drawing the other, but they are very much a team in transition with seemingly a fair way to go, given they dropped two of their original squad and called up four (three uncapped) within two days of the start of this series.
With little trust in either side's consistency of performance, 7/4 odds on Sri Lanka - who have a win and a draw from two visits to Rawalpindi - look a little more attractive.
Best Bet
Sonal Dinusha - Sri Lanka 1st Inns top batter @ 9/1
Sonal Dinusha took 3-22 on debut against Bangladesh in June last year but it is his batting that has really come to the fore in 2026 and he looks overpriced to top score for Sri Lanka in their first innings.
While others may have stolen the limelight in the two-Test series against West Indies this summer, Dinusha still impressed with the bat, making scores of 43, 12 not out (one of only two batters to hit double figures), 92 and 28.
However, he was almost single-handedly responsible for keeping his side in the subsequent battle with India, scoring three centuries in four innings with his other knock being 84, all of which were the top score in each Sri Lanka innings.
His unbeaten 133 in the second innings of the second Test also came after India enforced the follow-on, suggesting he has the temperament to go with the talent to be a success in red-ball cricket.
Given the lack of consistency from his team-mates, odds of 9/1 for the 25-year-old to top score for a fifth successive time are appealing.
Series Prediction
1-1 Draw
Pakistan have home advantage and a good recent record against Sri Lanka, winning two of the last three series (all two Tests) 1-0 and 2-0 and drawing the other 1-1, and are favourites to come out on top again.
While they can of course win a Test, they have shown they can also lose them, sometimes spectacularly, and Sri Lanka can capitalise on their hosts' frailties by claiming at least one win.
Player Tips
Babar Azam is again leading Pakistan and will be delighted to be back on home soil given his side's recent struggles, although there remains plenty of uncertainty going into the series, particularly given the late changes to the squad.
The captain will therefore be determined to find his better form and he can call on a good record at Rawalpindi, having struck three hundreds and two fifties there, which includes an unbeaten 102 against Sri Lanka as well as a 50 in his most recent innings.
After a fallow couple of years, there have been more positive signs in 2026 too, with 405 runs scored at an average of 50.63.
That includes a disappointing start in England, but his last Test knock was 76 at Edgbaston and he is 5/6 to score at least 70 in the first Test against Sri Lanka, who he averages 54.00 against, helped by three tons and three 50s in eight matches.
Saud Shakeel is an experienced ally in the middle order who is 1/1 to score at least 70, and he returns to the Test arena in decent nick having struck 16 and 97 at Lord's and 43 and 29 at Edgbaston on the summer tour of England.
Shakeel has also scored two hundreds and two half centuries with Kingsmen domestically since, and has previous in Rawalpindi with two of his four Test tons comings at the ground, as well as two fifties in five matches.
Kamindu Mendis averages nearly 54 for Sri Lanka after 18 matches, reaching three figures on five occasions with a further seven fifties, one of which came in his last innings against India.
The left-hander is 5/6 to pass his run line of 76.5 runs in Rawalpindi, coming into this first Test having struck 131 in the tri-series final.
The fact that Ali Usman has been dropped from the Pakistan squad suggests that the surface in Rawalpindi will be less helpful to Sri Lanka's array of spin bowlers, but music to the ears of touring paceman Asitha Fernando.
In four Tests in 2026, the 29-year-old has taken 17 wickets which includes two four-fers against India and a five-wicket haul against West Indies, and he is 1/2 to claim another four in the first match.
Bet Builder
- Babar Azam to score 70+ runs
- Saud Shakeel to score 70+ runs
- Kamindu Mendis to score over 76.5 runs
- Asitha Fernando to take 4+ wickets
Pays 31/4
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
