The County Ground in Bristol is the venue on Saturday for a cross‑group T20 Blast clash between Gloucestershire and Surrey that could easily be a preview of the knockout stages.
The hosts have hit a rough patch, losing three of their last five matches to fall 12 points behind Central and West Group leaders Northamptonshire.
An eight‑wicket defeat to the Steelbacks earlier this week underlined some of the problems they face now that South African star Duan Jansen, their leading wicket-taker, has returned home.
Still, Dawid Malan impressed on his long-awaited debut and they remain formidable at home with three wins from four at The County Ground.
Surrey, meanwhile, arrive in Bristol brimming with confidence after edging Essex in a thrilling epic contest this week.
With five wins from eight, they are hot on the heels of South Group leaders Hampshire and look every bit the powerhouse expected of a squad stacked with international talent.
Gloucestershire v Surrey Tips Summary
Best Bet - Surrey to make highest 1st 6 overs score @ 8/11
Alternative Bet - Top match batter - Dawid Malan @ 5/1
Bet Builder - Josh Philippe 30+ runs, Dawid Malan 2+ sixes & Reece Topley 2+ wickets @ 10/1
Gloucestershire v Surrey Prediction
Best Bet: Surrey to make highest 1st 6 overs score @ 8/11
Surrey have the best net run rate in the South Group, around 30% better than Gloucestershire's and their top order all have significantly better batting strike rates.
Openers Laurie Evans and Jason Roy are striking at 139 and 140 respectively while Gloucs duo D'Arcy Short and Malan are both hovering around 131 for their career strike rates.
Surrey's batting looks terrifying at the moment with Aussie star Philippe having scored 292 runs at 137 in the last Big Bash League and already smacking two fifties in his first two knocks for the county.
He made 61 off 30 balls at Chelmsford the other day and should keep the powerplay boundaries flowing if he gets in during the first six overs on Saturday.
Surrey also have one of the best powerplay bowlers in the Blast, Reece Topley, to help them contain Short and Malan, so the visitors look better equipped to exploit the early fielding restrictions.
Alternative Bet: Top match batter - Dawid Malan @ 5/1
Malan made a big splash on his Gloucestershire debut, carting the Steelbacks' bowlers all around Bristol in a cavalier 91 off 55 balls on debut.
He hit six fours and four sixes in that innings and looks well-placed to outscore his teammates again on Saturday, given Short made only 16 and middle-order duo Liam Scott and Miles Hammond 33 apiece.
The former England star could be worth backing to finish as the top batter in the match because, although Surrey are laden with quick scorers, that also builds more pressure on the men in the middle to play big shots.
Consequently, only one player in the away side has scored more than 90 this season.
Gloucestershire v Surrey Bet Builder
Josh Philippe 30+ runs
Dawid Malan 2+ sixes
Reece Topley 2+ wickets
Pays @ 10/1
Philippe has been electric since joining Surrey, scoring two fifties at a strike rate near 195. He should pass 30 again if he maintains his current form.
Malan is another in-form batter who can make an impact and looks good value to clear the boundary ropes on two or more occasions after hitting four sixes in his unbeaten 91 against Northants last time out.
Topley has taken 16 wickets in eight games, striking once every 11 balls. His left‑arm angle and the amount of swing he generates with the new ball should give him a decent chance of taking multiple wickets.
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Key Match Stats
Surrey have won four of the last six meetings with one tie in that time.
Gloucestershire have won three of their last four Blast games in Bristol.
D'Arcy Short is Gloucestershire's most productive batter this year with 251 runs, striking at 156.87.
Josh Philippe has scored 113 runs in two games for Surrey with a strike rate of 194.82
Topley has taken 16 wickets at an average of 13.56
Malan top-scored with an unbeaten 91 from 55 balls on his Gloucestershire debut.
Tactics, Form & Team News
Former England star Malan made his long-awaited Gloucestershire debut against Northants Steelbacks last time out after recovering from a calf strain.
He looks set to open alongside Australian Short with captain Jack Taylor due in at five and former England hopeful James Bracey keeping wicket.
South African quick Marchant de Lange spearheads an attack that has become used to using Bristol's swing‑friendly conditions to defend in the second innings.
Probable Gloucestershire XI: 1 D'Arcy Short, 2 Dawid Malan, 3 Liam Scott, 4 Miles Hammond, 5 Jack Taylor (c), 6 Kamran Dhariwal, 7 James Bracey (wk), 8 Graeme van Buuren, 9 Daaryoush Ahmed, 10 Marchant de Lange, 11 Will Williams.
Matt Fisher and Dom Sibley are pushing for places, but Surrey are likely to be unchanged from the win over Essex.
Evans and Roy open with Philippe at three and England stars Ollie Pope and Dan Lawrence to follow. Topley, Tom Lawes and Tom Curran will lead the bowling attack.
Pope leads the side in the absence of regular captain Sam Curran, on international duty alongside Will Jacks.
Probable Surrey XI: 1 Jason Roy, 2 Laurie Evans, 3 Josh Philippe, 4 Dan Lawrence, 5 Ollie Pope (wk/c), 6 Adam Thomas, 7 Tom Curran, 8 Chris Jordan, 9 Jordan Clark, 10 Tom Lawes, 11 Reece Topley.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
