San Antonio Spurs ended Oklahoma City Thunder's championship defence in the Western Conference finals and NBA expert Gareth Freeman thinks they should be too strong for Eastern Conference winners New York Knicks.
The Spurs posted the second best record across the league over the course of the season and have built their team around superstar center Victor Wembanyama.
The Knicks did beat the Spurs in the NBA Cup final earlier this season, but that was a one-off game, whereas the Finals will be contested over a best-of-seven series.
The Knicks are making their first appearance in the Finals since 1999 and haven't lifted the championship since 1973.
San Antonio won all five of their titles under former coach Gregg Popovich, who is now their president.
The Spurs hadn't reached the playoffs since 2019 prior to this season, but Mitch Johnson's side are the favourites for overall glory this year at 10/19 and the Knicks are 8/5 underdogs.
NBA Finals 2026 Series Tips Summary
Series Bet - San Antonio Spurs -1.5 series handicap @ 23/20
Player Bet 1 - Jalen Brunson most points in series @ 23/20
Player Bet 2 - Stephon Castle most assists in series @ 13/10
NBA Finals 2026 Series Prediction
Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs -1.5 series handicap @ 23/20
San Antonio finished the regular season with a 62-20 record, behind only the Thunder across the league, while the Knicks came in third in the East with 53-29.
The Spurs are justifiable favourites and they have home court advantage for the series, with four of the potential seven games to be played in Texas, but the Knicks do have a couple of things working in their favour.
San Antonio arrive at the Finals Series after two gruelling tests. The Spurs needed the full seven games to oust OKC in the previous round and they were taken to six games by Minnesota Timberwolves before that.
In contrast, the Knicks have only lost two games across the playoffs so far and both of those defeats came in the first round against Atlanta Hawks.
Since then, they’ve claimed back-to-back series sweeps over top seeds Detroit Pistons and then Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Knicks should come into the series fresher, they've played four games less than the Spurs and have had a break ahead of Game 1, but San Antonio have been through some stern tests against better teams and come into the series with momentum after defeating OKC.
New York are yet to be really tested as Detroit were dealing with injury issues and the Cavs didn’t put up much of a fight, whereas San Antonio have just beaten the defending champions in a series where they had to win on the road twice.
San Antonio are already playing at their peak and the Knicks will need to raise their levels further to win the Finals so the Spurs look justified favourites even if fatigue is a bit of a concern.
It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see these sides split the first two games in Texas, as the Spurs have done in all three of their playoff series so far, but ultimately San Antonio have the talent and mentality to win this series without needing the full seven games and they can cover a -1.5 games handicap.
Player Bet 1: Jalen Brunson most points in series @ 27/20
If the Spurs win the series then Victor Wembanyama will probably claim Finals MVP honours and if the Knicks take the championship then Jalen Brunson will probably take that award.
If you do fancy New York to end their long wait for another championship then backing Brunson to be MVP stands out, but the better angle looks to be backing him to be the series leading scorer as that still has a strong chance regardless of who lifts the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Brunson is averaging 26.9 points per-game in the playoffs, while Wembanyama is averaging 23.2.
The Knicks' point guard leads their offense and he's had four 30+ points games across his last eight games, but Wembanyama takes more responsibility at both ends of the court so the scoring burden is shared around a bit more for San Antonio and that makes Brunson look a strong play in the most points in the series market ahead of Wembanyama.
Player Bet 2 - Stephon Castle most assists in series @ 13/10
Brunson leads the market for most assists in series, but San Antonio's Stephon Castle as a marginal underdog could be the better option.
Castle averages 6.7 assists per-game in the playoffs and Brunson is averaging 6.6 - and his figure is slightly inflated by a 14-assists game against the Cavs that is a bit of an outlier in his stats.
Brunson is New York's key creator and Castle shares those responsibilities with De'Aaron Fox with the Spurs.
That is a slight concern here, but there is also a chance that Brunson will focus more on taking shots than making them so Castle looks the better pick to lead the series in assists.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
