Laura Sanko and Din Thomas break down the UFC 333 main event fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev.
Episode summary
Laura Sanko is joined by fight analyst Din Thomas on One On One to break down the UFC 333 main event, Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev for the UFC featherweight title. They walk through the tale of the tape, why Volkanovski is still thriving at 38, how Evloev's wrestling and time management win close rounds, and what the grappling exchanges could look like compared to Volkanovski's fights with Islam Makhachev. Din makes his pick, and the two answer fan questions on the striking advantage, a possible Volkanovski vs. Justin Gaethje fight and the greatest featherweight of all time.
Topics covered
0:00 Intro: Din Thomas, a tiny T-shirt and the fanny pack
1:44 Big-picture thoughts on Volkanovski vs. Evloev
3:21 Tale of the tape: Volkanovski vs. Evloev stats
4:34 Giving Volkanovski his flowers
8:43 Why Din enjoys watching Movsar Evloev
10:41 Evloev's chess match with Lerone Murphy
13:10 Volkanovski's challenges and the Makhachev comparison
15:50 Winning close rounds and the judging criteria
20:03 Taking away Evloev's choice: striking vs. grappling
22:04 The grappling exchanges: can Evloev do more than Islam Makhachev?
24:40 Din Thomas' pick for Volkanovski vs. Evloev
26:03 Fan questions: the striking advantage and Volkanovski's wrestling
28:27 Fan questions: Volk vs. Gaethje and the greatest featherweight ever
31:22 Wrap-up: why UFC 333 is a special card
Intro: Din Thomas, a small T-shirt and the fanny pack (0:00 to 1:44)
Laura Sanko welcomes Din Thomas to the show, and the two open with some fun about Din's snug T-shirt. Din admits the medium used to fit a lot better before "a couple years, a couple pounds, a couple steaks."
"Now I'm like, it feel like a rash guard. I look like I'm wearing a rash guard," Din said.
Laura jokes that between the rash guard look and the fanny pack, Din is turning into jiu-jitsu coach John Danaher, and the two agree the fanny pack is in good company with Joe Rogan as a fan.
Big-picture thoughts on Volkanovski vs. Evloev (1:44 to 3:21)
Laura sets up the main event: Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against undefeated Movsar Evloev, who is 20-0 overall and 10-0 in the UFC. Din said he's always excited to watch Volkanovski compete because of how much of himself the champion shares with fans.
"I just love how vulnerable he is to us, how he lets us in on his life," Din said.
Din is careful about how he describes the threat Evloev poses, saying it's "danger to the reign of Volkanovski, not necessarily to the health of the man." Laura also reminds viewers that fan questions submitted on Instagram are answered at the end of the episode.
Tale of the tape: Volkanovski vs. Evloev stats (3:21 to 4:34)
Laura runs through the numbers. Volkanovski holds the edge in striking output and accuracy, while the biggest gap is in the wrestling, where Evloev averages almost three times as many takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at a much higher rate.
Stat | Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev |
|---|---|---|
Age | 38 | 32 |
Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
Reach | 71 in. | 72 in. |
Significant strikes landed per minute | 5.99 | 3.91 |
Striking accuracy | 57% | 47% |
Significant strikes absorbed per minute | 3.31 | 2.80 |
Striking defense | 58% | 61% |
Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.60 | 4.78 |
Takedown accuracy | 34% | 52% |
Takedown defense | 68% | 61% |
Submission attempts per 15 minutes | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Laura called Evloev's 52% takedown accuracy "a crazy accuracy for as much as he shoots," and noted that neither fighter has been much of a submission threat.
Giving Volkanovski his flowers (4:34 to 8:43)
Laura said it's easy to forget how special Volkanovski is until you restudy him. He's a champion at 38, looking for another defense in his second title reign, and the only fighter to beat the curse.
"He gives 38 a new meaning," Din said. He called Volkanovski his favorite fighter to watch right now and said that, unusually for him, he's openly rooting for the champion this time.
"I rarely ever want a guy to win. When I make a pick, it's not because I want him to win, but this situation is I want him to win to prove that it can be done," Din said.
Din added that Volkanovski "might have the highest IQ in the fight game right now," pointing to his ability to fight from both stances, his jab, low kicks and movement. Laura said she admires how Volkanovski bet on himself by moving up to lightweight, even though it didn't go his way.
"I'm really moved by people who strive for greatness even if they fail," Laura said.
Din also noted how rarely Volkanovski repeats a mistake, saying "he'll make only that same mistake once in the fight."
Why Din enjoys watching Movsar Evloev (8:43 to 10:41)
Laura said Evloev doesn't have the fans' hearts the way Volkanovski does, but he has done the hard, grindy work to make himself undeniable, much like Merab Dvalishvili's rise. Din said Evloev is "one of the rare primarily wrestler type fighters" he really enjoys watching, and pushed back on the idea that he's boring.
"It's better that he gives us the best version of himself than to go outside of himself to be somebody that he's not and be a worse fighter," Din said. "I don't think that Movsar is boring by any stretch of the imagination. I actually appreciate his grit in fights."
Evloev's chess match with Lerone Murphy (10:41 to 13:10)
Laura called Evloev's scrambles phenomenal and his fight with Aljamain Sterling a fun one to watch. In his last fight against Lerone Murphy, Evloev chose to stand with a fighter many expected to have the striking edge, and didn't start shooting until the third or fourth round. Laura saw it as a smart chess move.
Din said it caught Murphy off guard, too. "Just as we're surprised that he was standing for that long, Lerone was surprised as well," he said.
Laura said that comes down to Evloev's reputation, calling it "reputationally the threat of his wrestling." Din agreed that it forced Murphy to stay more reserved on his feet, which helped Evloev keep the early rounds close or win them.
Volkanovski's challenges and the Makhachev comparison (13:10 to 15:50)
Laura noted that Volkanovski is coming off two fights with Diego Lopes, and before that faced Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev. Din said Evloev is a better shooter and stickier in wrestling positions than Lopes or Topuria, and that Volkanovski can't let the fight turn into a long stretch of takedown defense that eats the clock.
"If he can drag you into his world, drag you into his little bubble of the Venn diagram, it can make it very difficult for Alex," Din said.
Din also said there's enough film to know Evloev can be beaten in spots, because "while he's undefeated, he hasn't won every minute of every round."
Aljamain Sterling had success outgrappling him, and Arnold Allen had success with different takedown defenses, including Granby rolls, until he got punched.
Winning close rounds and the judging criteria (15:50 to 20:03)
Asked about Evloev's biggest danger, Din said it's simply that he knows how to win. Evloev's body language, presence and ability to finish combinations make close rounds look like his, so Volkanovski has to win his rounds convincingly.
"Close rounds are going to go to Movsar because he has the body language," Din said. "He's a winner through and through."
Laura pointed out that Sterling took Evloev down six times to Evloev's four and still lost, crediting Evloev's scrambling and time management. The two also dug into the subjectivity of judging, with Laura asking "how much accumulative small amounts of damage equal one big right hand?" Din added that a fighter's reaction to a shot, like panicking at the sight of his own blood, can matter as much as the shot itself.
Taking away Evloev's choice: striking vs. grappling (20:03 to 22:04)
Laura asked whether Evloev goes straight to his wrestling or tries to strike. Din said Volkanovski's "first objective in this fight is to not give him that option."
"You really have to be defensive in an offensive way to where they have no choice but to strike with you," Din said.
Laura noted that Volkanovski has talked about making Evloev "panic striking and panic shooting" with pressure and volume. Din said that plan depends on Volkanovski landing something meaningful early, because "in order to have good feints, you got to establish the strike first."
The grappling exchanges: can Evloev do more than Islam Makhachev? (22:04 to 24:40)
Din believes Evloev could have more wrestling success against Volkanovski than Islam Makhachev did. Makhachev couldn't get in deep on shots against the shorter Volkanovski and didn't have Evloev's gas tank, while Evloev can shoot from farther away and get in deeper.
"If he can get his hands locked around Alex and he can get him down in a good spot initially, I think he can have more success than even Islam had," Din said.
Din doesn't expect submission defense to be the issue. He said Volkanovski might even be the better pure grappler, so the key is keeping Evloev in front of him and not letting him lock his hands from behind.
Din Thomas' pick for Volkanovski vs. Evloev (24:40 to 26:03)
Din picked Volkanovski, saying he would normally never back a 38-year-old in this kind of matchup, but Volkanovski has defied the odds and sees a path to victory.
"I will not pick against Volk. No matter how I feel about it, I will not pick against Volk because in my brain I see the path of victory for him," Din said. "I think he's going to be the one to hand Movsar his first L."
Laura added that plenty of featherweights would be happy to see the "pesky" Evloev finally lose.
Fan questions: the striking advantage and Volkanovski's wrestling (26:03 to 28:27)
On who has the striking advantage, Din said "the better striker is Alex. No doubt," but warned that Evloev has heavy hands and can change a fight with one shot, as he did when his jab busted open Arnold Allen.
Laura agreed that the wrestling threat makes Evloev's striking more effective in an MMA context. "If it was a kickboxing match, I think Volkanovski would clean them up pretty good," she said.
On whether Volkanovski will shoot for takedowns, Din said it isn't part of his A game, but he might mix them in to make a point if he's having his way, like Payton Talbott's trip on Henry Cejudo.
Fan questions: Volk vs. Gaethje and the greatest featherweight ever (28:27 to 31:22)
A fan asked whether Volkanovski should move up for a double retirement fight with Justin Gaethje. Din said those are probably his two favorite fighters and he couldn't handle it, and Laura said the UFC would never let it happen.
On where Volkanovski ranks among 145-pound champions, Laura said he was already the best in her eyes, while noting nostalgia bias for Jose Aldo and that Max Holloway is in the conversation. Din agreed, while acknowledging how big the gap was between Aldo and the rest of the division in his prime.
"I do think that Volkanovski is the greatest featherweight of all time," Din said.
Wrap-up: why UFC 333 is a special card (31:22 to 32:20)
Din said UFC 333 is one of the best cards in a while, especially on a technical level, and that it reminded him of the days when fans circled every fight on paper.
"This was one of them cards that reminded us of back in the day when we got really excited about a card," Din said.
Laura pointed viewers to the One On One video on the co-main event.
Din Thomas' UFC 333 prediction: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Pick: Alexander Volkanovski
Method of victory: Not specified. Din says Volkanovski will hand Evloev the first loss of his career.
Why Din picks Volkanovski:
Volkanovski has defied the odds at 38 and has a clear path to victory.
Volkanovski is the better striker and has the higher fight IQ.
Volkanovski's first job is to take away Evloev's choice of where the fight happens.
He has to win his rounds convincingly, because Evloev wins close rounds.
Quick Breakdown of the Episode
Who does Din Thomas pick to win Volkanovski vs. Evloev at UFC 333?
He picked Alexander Volkanovski to beat Movsar Evloev and hand him the first loss of his career, saying he will not pick against Volkanovski.What is the key to Volkanovski beating Evloev, according to Din Thomas?
Din says Volkanovski has to take away Evloev's choice of striking or wrestling, keep him in front of him, and win his rounds convincingly, because close rounds tend to go to Evloev.Who has the striking advantage in Volkanovski vs. Evloev?
Din Thomas says Volkanovski is the better striker, but warns that Evloev has heavy hands and can change the fight if he lands.
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